Few world regions are as beset by conflicts and in need of outside help to resolve them as the contemporary Middle East. Civil wars in Syria, Iraq and Libya, reactionary terror in Egypt and growing tension between Saudi Arabia and Iran have all over-shadowed the unresolved conflict between Israel and the Palestinians.
Little wonder, then, that Tony Blair is resigning as the representative of the quartet of external actors involved – the United States, Russia, the United Nations and the European Union. The pity is that neither he nor they have been able to make any real progress in resolving them.
Blair’s mandate was to help bring international assistance to the Palestinians in building their economy, improving governing institutions and liaising with outside powers in negotiations with the Israelis. Appointed in 2007 on the proposal of George Bush, after resigning as British prime minister, Blair had a deserved peace-making reputation from his intensive work on Northern Ireland. But he found it hard to carve out an effective autonomous role, became close to the Israelis and the US in his lobbying and steadily lost the Palestinian trust.
His extensive consultancy business with corporations and autocratic governments in the region brought too few real benefits on the ground. His support for the 2003 US-led invasion of Iraq further eroded his credibility as its disastrous effects in the region unfolded over these seven years.
Blair’s departure leaves the Israelis and Palestinians further away from an agreement than ever, with little prospect of resurrecting a two-state deal and few signs of the bilateral or multilateral energy required to make sustained progress. Blair’s claims to have eased some of the burdens of Israeli occupation in the West Bank and Gaza and opened up economic links are unconvincing. To be effective, a mediating role like his would have to represent a much more powerful will to succeed than he was capable of offering, or had a mandate to deliver.
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