Amid the desperate efforts to reach a consensus between Palestinians and Israeli negotiators before President Clinton leaves office and the now daily fatal incidents on the ground there is precious little room for optimism in the Middle East peace process. Yesterday valuable negotiating time was lost after an Israeli settler was shot dead in Gaza, Israeli forces closed off the commercial border and settler groups went on a wild rampage against a Palestinian village.
The latest round of talks has been peppered by violence which escalates tension and makes compromises increasingly difficult to achieve. The grisly public execution of a Palestinian convicted by a military court of passing information to Israeli authorities over the weekend has been rightly condemned by the European Union as a violation of humanitarian principles. It must be seen in the context of the equally disgraceful recent Israeli policy of selectively assassinating Palestinian activists suspected of leading the revolt against them. Those executed are assumed to have passed on information leading to recent assassinations. This is a ruthless war of propaganda and clandestine organisation.
President Clinton's latest proposal for a settlement has been found unacceptable by Palestinian representatives, despite their readiness to clarify and explore it further. The plan is vague on security issues, Israeli settlements and Jerusalem, they argue; it requires an impossible affirmation that the right of Palestinians to return to the homes from which they were expelled or fled in 1948 should be set aside. The four-month rebellion has made it much more difficult for Mr Arafat and his colleagues to negotiate a settlement, because many of those who oppose it have been prominent in the protests. But the Palestinian leaders could not afford to ignore the political opening on the Israeli side that put the prime minister, Mr Barak, in a position to offer a deal with which he might win the forthcoming prime ministerial election. The alternative, a victory for the Likud leader, Gen Ariel Sharon, who rejects this peace process, looks more and more likely on February 6th, according to the opinion polls. Likewise, President Clinton seemed to offer a window of opportunity before his departure, given that President-elect Bush will probably not give the issue the same priority. Unfortunately Mr Clinton's efforts to force the pace from last summer now look premature, coming up against a Palestinian leadership ill-prepared to sell an agreement to its followers and an Israeli government over-anxious for rapid progress.
The prospect of any agreement now looks bleak indeed. There has been a sharp move to the right in Israeli politics and a move to the left in Palestinian opinion. Trust between the leaderships has all but evaporated, despite the close bonds built up over years of talks. Regional leaders are grimly preparing for what could be a prolonged period of instability and the threat of war. Internationally plans to contain such outbreaks are being re-examined. The only consolation is that the Middle East region is so sensitive politically and in security terms that it cannot be ignored.