Sinn Fein believes we are approaching the "countdown scenario" on the path to a united Ireland. In an interview in the Guardian last week, Mitchel McLouglin argued that there was evidence that Catholics would form a majority in Northern Ireland within 10 years.
He expects the forthcoming census to show a substantial increase in the Catholic population, probably to 46 per cent, compared to 41 per cent 10 years ago. On the strength of this he wants Tony Blair to hold a referendum on the issue of the Border. This would not result in a majority in favour of change, but would serve to concentrate unionist minds on the fact a united Ireland is inevitable.
Tony Blair will not accede to the request, but the very fact of Sinn Fein's demand is depressing. Throughout the interview Mitchel McLoughlin refers to "Catholics" rather than nationalists, making the assumption that all Catholics would vote to remove the Border.
There's a big "if" attached to this proposition. Many Ulster Catholics are quite happy with the Belfast Agreement which has yielded enormous benefits to their community. It has given them a sense of ownership of the structures of government. At the same time the British exchequer continues to fund a level of social services, particularly in health and education, which are ahead of this State.
They also recognise that any talk of changing the constitutional status quo is likely to drive the unionist community even deeper into the trenches. David Trimble managed to sell the Belfast Agreement on the grounds that it settled the question of the Border.
AT a time when David Trimble is facing into a difficult electoral contest, this is likely to make his task even harder. The Ulster Unionist leader is under threat not only from the DUP, but from anti-agreement candidates is his own party. There is speculation he could even lose his own Westminster seat, which would fatally undermine his political authority. Perhaps Sinn Fein would welcome this, although it is difficult to see that it would be any easier for them to deal with Jeffrey Donaldson, or any other possible successor to David Trimble.
What is shocking about Mitchel McLoughlin's argument is the explicitly majoritarian terms in which it is couched. There was a time, not so very long ago, when Mr McLoughlin would urge the delegates at his party's ardfheis to understand the fears and insecurities of the unionist community.
It is true that Sinn Fein ideologues always insisted the Belfast Agreement marked a transition period on the way to a united Ireland. My understanding of Sinn Fein's strategy was that it was necessary to have a period free of violence during which unionist and nationalists would learn to live and work together.
The experience of sharing and exercising power through consensus would, hopefully, persuade unionists that there was nothing to be feared from ever closer links with this State. In time, the Border would, to all intents and purposes, become irrelevant. At that point it might be necessary to have a poll, or different political structures might evolve that satisfied both communities.
It is hard to know how much of Sinn Fein's line is electioneering. The party is understandably exasperated by David Trimble's refusal to lift the ban on its ministers attending meetings of the cross-Border bodies. It also has problems with its own grass roots.
Its energies now are focused on the Westminster poll and its stated objective of overtaking the SDLP as the main party representing nationalists. Putting the Border firmly back on the agenda is one way of pulling out the vote.
The SDLP believes that Sinn Fein is misreading the mood in the broad nationalist community. John Hume and his colleagues argue that the way ahead is through the kind of consensus that is already working in the Assembly and the Executive. On bread-and-butter matters - and on crises like foot-and-mouth - the parties have shown they can work remarkably well together. Even on the thorny issue of policing, the SDLP believes the majority of nationalists desperately want to see a new police service, not least because they are aghast at the level of intimidation and worse that has become the norm in many Catholic areas.
As to the Border, the SDLP line is that, of course, its supporters want a united Ireland in time and by consent. But they do not want a referendum which could run the risk of creating a disaffected unionist minority which would find itself in the same situation which nationalists experienced for the first 50 years of Northern Ireland's existence.