Born in Germany

In his continuing wooing of the German people to support his reform programme and boost his political popularity, the chancellor…

In his continuing wooing of the German people to support his reform programme and boost his political popularity, the chancellor, Mr Gerhard Schroder, has now called on those of them with "space in their hearts and homes" to adopt a child after he and his wife adopted a Russian girl in July.

Quite aside from the personal appeal, his message highlights a profoundly important fact about contemporary Germany - and contemporary Europe: a steadily falling birth rate and a growing age profile which could see the working age population shrink by up to 40 per cent by 2050 if it remains uncorrected.

Mr Schroder has been personally rejuvenated in recent months, as his reform programme has gained popularity and he himself appears enlivened by marrying again and adopting a new daughter. Many believe the two factors are connected in soaring opinion polls and fresh evidence that his Social Democrat party is benefiting too. But Mr Schroder is well aware that "the more short-termist public opinion is, the more you have to stay on long-term track" with a reform programme. It is designed to shake up the labour market so that unemployment can fall from its existing very high levels and industrial productivity regain its competitive edge.

Mr Schroder may have more success with these reforms than in changing such a deep-seated demographic trend. The birth rate continues to fall, while three times more German women aged between 18-34 than elsewhere in the European Union want to stay childless. Asked how many children they would like to have Germans say an average 1.52, compared to an average 2.25 in France, where there are heavy subsidies for child-bearing. Two-thirds of German adults surveyed by Stern magazine agree with the statement that "children are too expensive".

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Such demographic trends have profound economic consequences. The present German birth rate of 1.3 per cent is much less than is needed to reproduce its existing 80 million population. Projections for the EU as a whole for 2050 speak of 420 million population compared to the existing 455 million. The United States, by contrast, now has 295 million people, but on current trends would have 430 million by 2050. An aging population will make much greater demands on pensions and care, especially where these costs are borne from current spending on an already heavily taxed working poopulation.

It would be wrong to despair. Policy and events can reverse such trends. Global as well as intra-EU migration can compensate for them when economic pressure demands. Mr Schroder has certainly tapped a deep well.