"We have made it very clear to the leadership of the Republika Srpska that they have only one future and that is as a co operative part of Bosnia." That statement, by Mr John Kornblum, the senior United States co ordinator for the Balkans, sums up the basic ostensible aim of the Bosnian elections being held today: to provide a democratic endorsement for the Dayton accords and their main provision - the creation of a multi ethnic state comprising the warring: communities of Muslims, Croats and Serbs. So far there is no certainty that the Serbs can be persuaded to stay in, still less to co operate. They have notoriously prevented any roll back of ethnic cleansing.
Dayton, in spite of the lavish arm twisting and enforced isolation of the ethnic leaders and the president of Serbia, Mr Slobodan Milosevic, was a high point in the political reconstruction after the war. It was generally recognised as a fudge, requiring considerable pressure subsequently by international forces to make progress. And if the Serbs, with their provocative campaigning have violated both the letter and the spirit of Dayton, neither the Muslims nor the Croats have been far behind.
Fears have been expressed that the lifting of the arms embargo, and the delivery of the first tranche of a $100 million worth of surplus weapons to create a modern army for the Croat Muslim Federation (one of the components, with the Serb Republic, of the multi ethnic state), will merely add fuel to the simmering flames. Against this background, the democratic exercise today takes on an air of well meaning fatuousness. A running down of arms on both sides would have been better calculated to reinforce the development of politics.
That decision, unfortunately, underlines the reality that is Bosnia, in spite of the considerable efforts invested by the OSCE and the US in the election. The campaign of the Muslim president, Mr Alija Izetbegovic, has been aimed at heightening Islamic consciousness and diminishes belief that Mr Izetbegovic himself has high hopes of a successfully integrated state. There has been no sign of any bridges being built between Mu slims and Croats; rather the contrary, as separatist policies are strong in the Croat community. What the election is likelier to show than the first step to a stable Bosnian state is the strength of ethnic nationalism, and that, by endorsing ethnic rivalries, could be a dangerous legacy for the future.
All the evidence suggests that the return to violence has been only postponed, and that if Bosnia is to avoid the inevitable cycle that could lead to a full scale Balkan war, the international community will have to accept that it is in for the long haul. The current deadline of the end of this year for the withdrawal of Ifor is, by common consent, likely to be extended, but any deadline before the political system is in place and working normally will be a target date for nationalist preparations in all camps. It is difficult to see any sign of optimism in the events of the past months, apart from the absence of conflict. That, up to now, has not been turned to positive use.