Putting all the parties under the same roof and hoping for the magic to happen has had its day, writes Dan Keenan, Northern News Editor
This week has been a reality-check of sorts for all sides in the peace process. This is true most obviously for some elected representatives associated with paramilitaries.
But amid the bluster over the report of the Independent Monitoring Commission lies a tacit admission from the British and Irish governments that successful initiatives to sort things out by Mr Blair's June deadline are impossible.
Sinn Féin and Mr David Ervine's Progressive Unionist Party will have to contend with the fact that "periods of transition" and "constructive ambiguity" are over. There is no more appetite for political fudge.
But the two governments, exemplified by their postponement of intensive proximity talks scheduled for next week, have accepted that "hot-house" approaches to sorting out difficulties in the peace process are over.
Mr Blair could be forgiven for fondness for the days when helicopters dotted the Stormont lawn, and when all-night talks sessions and transatlantic calls to the Clinton White House moved political mountains in Northern Ireland. No more.
By pulling the plug on next week's Lancaster House talks, London seems to accept that the ploy of putting all the parties under the same roof and hoping for the magic to happen has run its course.
This week's developments have more than a whiff of governmental miscalculation about them.
There was once British optimism that Judge Cory's reports would finally be published and the IMC would have its time in the spotlight. Together these would clear the air and set the scene for the two premiers to sort things out over two or three days of intensive talks.
But such initiatives now have a tendency to backfire.
Judge Cory's findings did not put to bed damaging talk about state collusion with loyalist paramilitiaries. What his reports did do is stoke up the conviction, especially in republican communities, that state forces were - indeed remain - up to their necks in dirty war tactics.
The British decision to hold off on a Finucane inquiry now smacks more of justice denied in many eyes than justice delivered. Far from depoliticising the issue, Cory has placed it higher up the agenda.
So too with the IMC. It has turned out to be much more than a whistle-blower, designed to soothe some jangled, mostly unionist, nerves and thus help smooth the North's ragged politics.
Rather than clear a path for the two premiers to shepherd the parties towards conciliation, the Cory and IMC reports have inflamed passions, poisoned the atmosphere and tripped up rather than assisted the political process.
The Northern Secretary, Mr Paul Murphy, put a brave face on things last night.
Talks were merely "postponed until later in the summer", he said. Contacts would continue and government commitment will not lessen, he vowed.
However, there could be more trouble to come. The clock is already ticking towards the next IMC report, scheduled for the autumn, and its promise (or threat) to name and shame politicians associated with paramilitarism.
Next time the commissioners may well feel less restrained in calling things as they see it.
Unless there is some improvement or some change in the trends in paramilitary activity they outlined yesterday, it is difficult to see how further costly political fallout can be avoided.
Yesterday's IMC findings provide some cover for the main unionist parties.
Mr David Trimble can argue his decision not to go ahead with the resuscitation of the Executive last October has been vindicated.
More ominously, the DUP can insist more vociferously from the rarefied atmosphere of the high moral ground that it cannot do business with Sinn Féin, let alone share power with it.
High-level Sinn Féin sources never tire in their insistence that they are serious about engaging with unionists of all shades in the drive for a deal.
They suspect, equally strongly, that the DUP is playing a long game when it comes to restoring devolution.
The argument runs that there is no incentive for the DUP to sign up to anything with anyone - to have a Trimble-like moment of truth - while the electoral tide runs so strongly in its favour.
If that is as true as Sinn Féin fears, then forget about meaningful progress until the far side of not only June's elections but the next Westminster elections expected in 2005. The DUP could net more House of Commons seats then, and all at the expense of the Ulster Unionists.
But if that theory does indeed hold true for the DUP, it holds true for Sinn Féin as well. Elections are a one-way street in nationalist terms at the moment and Sinn Féin is building on its previous successes with every subsequent poll.
Only the governments, and the British government in particular, have the clout to force the pace of things. Recent results are not encouraging.
Turning a blind eye to certain paramilitary activities is now counter-productive.
The "hot-house" tactic has run its course.
The tendency to kick into touch specific political problems by passing them to commissions and judges seems to have produced a Newtonian result.
Every action now has an equal and opposite reaction.
The two governments meet today in London under the auspices of the British-Irish Intergovernmental Conference. What should be a relatively routine affair now has added significance.
If things go Dublin's way, progress will be announced on issues such as human rights, the North's criminal justice reforms, and a Bill of Rights. Mr Cowen's team will want to show that all progress possible is being made on implementation of the agreement, but that obstacles on the central issue of restoring devolution are down to the continuation of paramilitary activity.
Both governments will want to show that standing in the way of British demilitarisation, a settlement of the "On The Runs" issue and changes to policing, is not their intransigence but the continued malign presence of the IRA.
With an eye on June's two elections, the Government may not hesitate to place Sinn Féin in a bad light if it can.
The outlook is far from promising.