All analysis of the by-election result and its implications has to take into account the extraordinarily low turnout, the lowest in any Dail election or referendum in the history of the State. Indeed, just 7.8 per cent of those eligible to vote in Dublin South Central gave their first preference to the winner, Dr Mary Upton.
Having said that, it was a good day for the Labour Party, one it will greet with as much relief as celebration. It started the campaign as favourite to take the seat, and so a defeat would have been portrayed as a loss. After a patchy local government election performance last June in which Labour failed to make breakthroughs in a number of target areas, a defeat yesterday would have been seriously demoralising.
However, the victory was comfortable. Dr Mary Upton, sister of the late Pat Upton TD, whose death last February caused the by-election, won 28 per cent of the votes cast and came close to topping the poll on the first count.
Of course, the merger with Democratic Left made things easier. It ensured that the left vote would not be divided, as in the past, with former DL deputy Mr Eric Byrne. Faced with overwhelming support for Dr Upton from the original Labour organisation in the constituency, Mr Byrne did not contest the nomination. Mr Byrne has already been selected to run with Dr Mary Upton in the next general election, but this time Dr Upton had a clear run.
Her 28 per cent vote was higher than the 21.7 per cent garnered by the two candidates combined in 1997, although lower than the extraordinary combined votes of 34.5 per cent in the 1994 by-election won by Mr Byrne, and 37 per cent in the 1992 general election which saw both Mr Byrne and Dr Pat Upton elected.
Not too much can be read into the strong Labour vote. First, there was a significant vote of loyalty to and sympathy for the Upton family, reflecting the personal popularity of the late TD. Indeed, there was great poignancy in the sight of Pat Upton's children, aged from 19 down to 12, playing a very active part in the tally at yesterday's count in the company of their mother, Ms Ann Upton. The low turnout also gives reason for caution. National issues appear to have figured little in the campaign, and the campaign in turn featured little in the national media. Fianna Fail sources at the count maintained yesterday that the low turnout was due simply to lack of interest, rather than any anger among voters at recent scandals.
They maintained that matters such as Mr Haughey's shirts and big bills from Le Coq Hardi were hardly ever raised on the doorsteps. The only recent controversy thrown at them was that involving the debts of Mr John Ellis TD.
Opposition suggestions that scandal fatigue caused the low turnout do not appear to be borne out. If this was the case, Fianna Fail should have suffered disproportionately, while in fact Fianna Fail's performance, though far short of what was needed to win the seat, was not a disaster.
Mr Michael Mulcahy won 30 per cent of the vote, 4.6 percentage points less than the Fianna Fail vote in 1997, but considerably more than the 21 per cent won by Mr Mulcahy in the 1994 by-election. Several Fine Gael and Labour figures conceded yesterday that, in the circumstances of a strong sympathy vote for the Labour candidate and weeks of negative publicity for Fianna Fail arising from the Moriarty tribunal, Mr Mulcahy had performed well.
Fine Gael was professing itself happy yesterday with its performance. However, a vote of 20 per cent for Ms Catherine Byrne does not suggest any great leap in the party's fortunes. Dublin South Central has always been one of the party's weaker constituencies, where it won 25 per cent of the vote in 1997 and just 19 per cent in 1992.
In this context, 20 per cent for a first-time candidate is not a poor outcome, and Ms Byrne's home base in Inchicore will not come into the constituency until a boundary revision takes effect at the next general election. However, while the result was not disastrous, in recent days Fine Gael had been predicting a much better outcome, claiming its campaign had had an extraordinary effect and its candidate was in with a chance of taking the seat.
Sinn Fein won 8.3 per cent of the vote with a first-time candidate, Mr Aengus O Snodaigh, whose home base in Ballyfermot will not come into the constituency until the boundary revision. The party won just 4.7 per cent in 1997, has only two cumainn in the constituency and has suffered from recent divisions over candidate strategy.
The party will be pleased enough with its showing, although high-profile Sinn Fein figures spent a lot of time on the campaign and may have hoped for an even higher vote. However, Mr O Snodaigh now joins Mr Sean Crowe in Dublin South West, Mr Dessie Ellis in Dublin North West and Mr Larry O'Toole in Dublin North East as credible candidates who may challenge for Dail seats in the future.
The result has few wider implications. The Government's voting position remains unaffected, as the seat was returned to the party - indeed the family - which won it at the last general election.
All parties were yesterday looking to the next general election, when Dublin South Central becomes a five-seat constituency. Fianna Fail's Mr Ben Briscoe is expected to retire then and the Dublin Central TD, Ms Marian McGennis, is considered likely to move into the constituency to join Mr Sean Ardagh TD and, possibly, Mr Mulcahy on the party ticket.
Fine Gael's Ms Byrne is also expected to move in with her home base to join Mr Gay Mitchell TD on the Fine Gael ticket. Sinn Fein will be working hard over the next few years to build Mr O Snodaigh into a serious challenger.
Yesterday's figures favour Labour's Byrne-Upton ticket to take the extra seat. But, on a 28.18 per cent turnout, it is difficult to draw any firm conclusions except that a large majority of the population of Dublin South Central this week saw the election of a Dail deputy as of little relevance to them.