Brazil's 170 million people are facing a fascinating and difficult political choice about who is to be their president, after eight years of being governed well by Mr Fernando Henrique Cardoso. The left-wing candidate, Mr Luiz Inacio Lula da Silva, secured 46.4 per cent in Sunday's first round of voting, just short of the majority required to win an outright victory. He must fashion alliances to ensure a majority on October 27th.
The major question he faces is whether these will credibly modify his left-wing policies in order to appeal to sceptical voters. He certainly is the favourite going into the second round, but the outcome of congressional and other elections on Sunday shows he must have broad appeal.
Mr da Silva, or Lula as he is universally known, has a long and courageous record as a trade union and left-wing leader, from the time he resisted the military dictatorships. He has personified the aspiration of poor and marginalised Brazilians for a much fairer society whose rich resources should be more equally distributed.
In this election he has made a real breakthrough from the one quarter of the vote he secured in previous elections. He did so through political and organisational innovation. His policy platform has been changed greatly from before, when he supported cancellation of Brazil's heavy external debt and a radical programme of egalitarian reform. This has been modified in recent years to accept the need for fiscal discipline, low inflation and funding reform with growth rather than strong redistributive policies. Much of this would build on the centre-liberal reforms introduced by President Cardoso over the last eight years. Organisationally, Lula's Workers' Party has been refashioned into a powerful movement based on trade unions, community groups and a sympathetic intelligentsia.
These changes have not reassured international markets - or many Brazilian voters who fear a vote for Lula, even after these policy changes, would destabilise what remains a precarious democracy marked by deep social divisions. Voters may prefer to find another leader to demonstrate that Brazil can be governed effectively and who would be more acceptable to the United States. But Lula remains the favourite to win the second round. He would have to govern in alliance with other political and social forces in that case, but would carry great goodwill for such an experiment.