The arrest of two British undercover soldiers in Basra this week by Iraqi police and their subsequent handing over to a Shia militia group and rescue by British troops raised serious questions about security in the city.
Britain is supposed to be preparing Iraqi police and civil administration for a handover of power ahead of scaling down or withdrawing its 8,500 troops based there next year. But how can they do that if they cannot trust their designated successors to co-operate with them? Details of the incident are disputed by the Iraqi government and the British army, illustrating the dilemma they face in arranging this transition.
Basra is a Shia city of more than one million people and the capital of Iraq's oil-rich southern region. Its people were severely oppressed by Saddam Hussein when they rebelled after the 1990-1 Iraqi war. As a result, leadership is close to neighbouring Iran and the emerging administration deeply influenced by Shia religious and political movements. Many of the new police force have been recruited from them, while British occupation forces have co-operated closely with their leaders. Drawing analogies from the British army's role in Northern Ireland, it has been presented as an exercise in nation-building. But insurgent forces have penetrated the police and trust between them and the army is badly affected.
Road-side bombs killed several British soldiers earlier this month near Basra, showing the deterioration of relations. The escalation is related to the timetable for agreeing a new Iraqi constitution. It has now been approved by the conditional parliament and is to be voted on next month. If passed it could allow the creation of a federal southern region dominated by these Shia religious movements. Sunni representatives believe this could lead to civil war and break up the Iraqi state. These events show that the relative calm in southern Iraq indicates not stable nation building but a stand-off between opposing forces, each with factions in the police.
Britain must decide whether to agree a timetable for scaling down or withdrawing its troops from Iraq over the next year. Their presence alongside the predominant United States force of 135,000 stokes up hostility as well as providing security. The balance between the two is increasingly hard to maintain in Iraq. Little progress was reported after yesterday's meeting between John Reid, the UK defence secretary and Iraqi prime minister, Ibrahim al'Jaafari. Violence is expected to escalate as the Iraqi constitution is decided upon. This will increase pressure on the British government to make up its mind whether and how to disengage from the country.