Brown's opportunity

The city of Manchester plays host this week to a British Labour Party which is at its lowest ebb since coming to power nine years…

The city of Manchester plays host this week to a British Labour Party which is at its lowest ebb since coming to power nine years ago.

It will be a conference where what is not said may be as significant as what is said and where delegates will focus on the body language at the top table as much as on the speeches. Delegates are all too aware that the attempted coup against the leadership of Tony Blair reflected badly on the party. They will not need to be told that in-fighting and self-obsession can only serve to widen the gap that the Conservative Party, under its youthful leader, David Cameron, enjoys in the polls.

Mr Blair, boxed into a corner by opponents, reluctantly conceded that he would step down as leader by May 31st next. His opponents, many of them relatively new MPs in vulnerable seats, remain steadfast in their opinion that it would be preferable for him to leave the stage sooner, much sooner. In addition, the party organisations in Scotland and Wales would prefer that he quit in advance of elections there next May and give the party the bounce which usually comes with a new leader.

But will there be a bounce? It is a racing certainty that the brooding, impatient Chancellor of the Exchequer, Gordon Brown, will succeed Mr Blair, but there is increasing evidence that the Labour Party will struggle just as much under a Brown leadership. A Guardian/ICM poll, published last Friday, found that Mr Cameron was judged more likely to take the UK in the right direction and has the most potential as a prime minister. It also reported that Mr Cameron was considered more honest, less devious and far more pleasant than Mr Brown.

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The spotlight therefore will be focused hugely on Mr Brown this week. This is an opportunity for him to convince the party that he deserves the leadership for reasons other than 'buggin's turn'. In addition, though, he must use the occasion to convince the electorate that he will bring a fresh impetus to government and, on a personal note, that he is not the dour, resentful politician that the media - and the opinion polls - suggest he is.

Mr Brown has very little scope to distance himself from unpopular Blair policies which he himself signed up to, especially on Iraq, hospitals and schools. However, if Labour is to boost its electoral support, at the very least it will have to display unity on a grand scale and push home the message that Mr Cameron has yet to deliver policies of any consequence. If disunity resurfaces, and enmities are so deep between Blairites and Brownites, then Manchester may come to be looked back on as the occasion when Labour confirmed its slide into opposition.