Support for the Government and for Fianna Fáil has rebounded following the introduction in December of a second socially-caring budget by Minister for Finance Brian Cowen.
Increased expenditure on education and childcare, with particular focus on the needs of young married couples, has lifted the satisfaction rating of the Government by nine percentage points, to 46 per cent, while support for Fianna Fáil has risen by three points to 37 per cent.
The Progressive Democrats, whose party leader, Mary Harney, became mired in a series of controversies involving the health services, failed to make any progress.
The transformation in the fortunes of the Government was not as spectacular as that which occurred this time last year, when the impact of a popular budget was reinforced by an earlier, comprehensive, Cabinet reshuffle. In spite of that, the Coalition parties - and particularly Fianna Fáil - will take comfort from the findings of the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll which confirms their ability to engage with and attract the support of a volatile electorate.
At a time when preparations for the coming general election are at an advanced stage in most constituencies through the selection of candidates, such positive news will boost morale.
Of particular significance in the findings was the movement of undecided voters towards Fianna Fáil following the introduction of a childcare package worth €790 million targeting the lower paid and the parents of young children. Changes included an increase in maternity leave and payment of an annual supplement of €1,000 to the parents of children under six years of age. With predictions of a growth rate of 5 per cent for the coming year and the maturation of the Special Savings Investment Accounts, that feel-good factor may continue.
Fine Gael will be disappointed by its failure to maintain the steady progress that marked its performance in 2005. But, at 24 per cent, it is better placed than at this time last year and would hope to resume progress as the effects of a popular budget wear off.
The Labour Party leader, Pat Rabbitte, will be gratified by the rise in his party's support to 16 per cent - the highest point in 18 months - following his statement on the displacement of Irish workers and the possible introduction of a work permit system. Yesterday's publication of a policy document, seeking legislation on employment standards, reliable data and a more rigorous inspection system is likely to maintain pressure on the Government.
Although support for Sinn Féin and the Green Party declined slightly, these parties could well hold the balance of power after the next general election. But the primary message of this poll is that a Fianna Fáil/PD Coalition has a realistic chance of being returned for a third term. The Fine Gael/Labour led coalition has a lot of work to do. The alternative government still has to inspire the confidence of voters.