The US President arrives in China tomorrow for a brief visit. Miriam Donohoe examines the concerns of the two countries
Exactly 30 years ago tomorrow, Richard Nixon stepped off Air Force One at Beijing's military airport and offered his hand to Zhou Enlai.
The handshake between the then US president and Chinese premier ended 20 years of open hostility between the two countries and marked the advent of an important era in world relations.
In an unprecedented diplomatic move, the two countries agreed the Shanghai communiqué during the visit, setting out common ground as well as differences between China and the US.
In a remarkable coincidence, Mr Bush will arrive in Beijing on the anniversary of that first historic visit to China by a US leader. He will be greeted by the current Chinese President, Jiang Zemin, and there is no doubt the handshake will be warm and firm, unlike the tentative one exchanged between Nixon and Enlai three decades ago.
However, it has been by no means all rosy between the two countries since that initial diplomatic breakthrough, and Mr Bush will seek in his short 30 hours here to give some solidity to an often fragile and wary relationship.
The limits of the friendship will be tested with Mr Bush seeking a concrete commitment from China not to arm nations he has branded as being part of the "axis of evil" in his State of the Union address.
He will ask China not to transfer nuclear, biological or chemical weapons technology to the three countries, Iran, Iraq and North Korea.
Although the state-controlled media have sharply criticised Mr Bush for the "axis of evil" remark, Chinese leaders have been less vocal.
While China is willing to take limited steps to control transfers of military technology, analysts say it will be looking for US concessions in return.
For example, China wants the US to curb arms sales to Taiwan and to lift sanctions on Chinese entities accused of breaking non-proliferation pacts.
According to the professor of international relations in the Foreign Affairs College in Beijing, Dr Brendan Smith, US-Chinese relations since the Nixon visit have been cyclical, with periods of co-operation followed by periods of significant tensions.
Relations reached a low ebb last April when a US spy plane was involved in a collision with a Chinese fighter jet, resulting in the death of the pilot and the detention of the US crew on China's Hainan Island.
But September 11th has changed the entire context of Chinese-US relations, according to Dr Smith, with the focus now on the war against terrorism.
"The Americans are preoccupied with getting their message across regarding their fight on terrorism rather than listening more closely to the concerns of Asian countries and how best to shape US foreign policy to their needs," he says.
"To some extent, Bush will be coming to China to lecture and seek support from the Chinese in the fight against terrorism. Undoubtedly weapons proliferation will be raised."
The Chinese have already expressed support on the need for greater international co-operation on fighting terrorism, says Dr Smith. In return for support, he adds, they will seek recognition from America for what it sees as acts of terrorism within its Xinjiang and Tibetan provinces from separatist supporters, which the Chinese claim have links to Osama bin Laden.
China has bent over backwards in recent weeks to display its newfound friendship with the US, and has been keen to show that relations with Washington have recovered after a string of disputes.
In the run-up to the Bush visit, Beijing has released prominent political prisoners, softened its stance on Taiwan and swept aside an embarrassing scandal over bugs planted on a presidential jet which China bought from the US.
However, the two sides are no closer together on the two most sensitive issues in their relationship: weapons proliferation and Taiwan. China is worried about the US military presence in Taiwan.
Mr Bush angered China last year by offering Taiwan its biggest arms package in a decade and saying he would do "whatever it takes" to protect the island, which Beijing regards as a rebel province which should be reunited with the mainland, by force if necessary.
ON THE US side, there are huge concerns over human rights and, in particular, Mr Bush is expected to raise the issue of religious freedom in China. More than 50 Western followers of the banned Falun Gong spiritual group were expelled from China last week after protesting on Tiananmen Square and there have been consistent reports of thousands of Falun Gong members being held for re-education in labour camps across China.
Recently a Hong Kong man was jailed for smuggling bibles to a banned Christian group, but was later freed.
And last week, a religious rights group in New York published secret documents it claimed proved that China was targeting Christian groups practising in the country.
Trade ties between the two countries are important and will also be raised in talks. The US is China's second largest trading partner after Japan, while China ranks fourth for the United States. By the end of 2001, US firms had invested $35 billion in China.
There will be focus on the implementation of China's commitments following its entry to the World Trade Organisation three months ago.
US officials say China's implementation of some WTO pledges, such as protection of intellectual property, is lagging - something evidenced daily on the streets of Beijing by the sale of pirated movies, CDs, software, and designer clothes.
The Chinese President is due to step down from his Communist Party post this year and from the presidency in 2003.
According to one diplomatic source, Mr Jiang is looking at having his name go down in history as the leader who consolidated relations with the United States. Many China watchers are waiting with interest for what they say will perhaps be the most significant moment of Mr Bush's whirlwind visit: not the summit with Mr Jiang, but his first meeting with the man tipped to take over as leader of the world's most populous nation, Hu Jintao.
As it happens, Mr Hu will accompany Mr Bush during his visit to the prestigious Qinghua University. Mr Hu is a graduate of the college.
Tomorrow's visit to China will be Mr Bush's first since 1975, when he spent six weeks visiting his mother and father, who was then the US envoy to China.
In his 1999 campaign biography, Mr Bush wrote that he was bored and depressed by a nation where "all the bicycles looked the same".
He will be pleasantly surprised when he drives around Beijing. All the bicycles still look the same, but they are fewer in number. And he will see that the dull, Communist capital he got a glimpse of 27 years ago is now a colourful, modern, thriving metropolis.
Miriam Donohoe is Asia Correspondent of The Irish Times