Bush's transition honeymoon may be cut short by manner of victory

`Bringing America Together" and "I'm a uniter, not a divider" were the slogans George Bush campaigned on, but putting them into…

`Bringing America Together" and "I'm a uniter, not a divider" were the slogans George Bush campaigned on, but putting them into practice is going to be his biggest challenge.

The five weeks since election night when Vice-President Al Gore first conceded victory in a phone call, and withdrew it 30 minutes later to wait for a recount in Florida, have revealed strains in the body politic.

Now that Mr Bush appears certain to become president thanks to an extraordinary set of opinions from the US Supreme Court which have brought out its own partisan make-up, the Democrats inevitably believe Vice-President Al Gore "wuz robbed". Mr Bush will be the first US President since 1888 to be elected without winning the popular vote. And Mr Bush is poised to win the electoral college by the narrowest margin of one vote.

It is customary for new presidents to be given a honeymoon period to allow them propose their budget and to enact executive orders setting the tone of the new administration.

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If George Bush is seen as getting to the White House only by preventing a full count of the votes in Florida it will be difficult for the Democrats to afford him the traditional honeymoon. Already, Rev Jesse Jackson is denouncing the Supreme Court as a "willing tool of the Bush campaign" that has "orchestrated a questionable velvet coup".

The "legitimacy" of a Bush presidency will be challenged by some and already efforts are being made by the media and public interest bodies to have access to the uncounted ballots in Florida. The Supreme Court majority in effect said there should be a recount but that it was too late to do it properly. That will be seen as a challenge by those who are convinced Mr Gore was the real winner in Florida and thus of the presidency.

The first reaction for most Americans will be one of relief that this bruising period has ended. Whether they will be satisfied with the way the Supreme Court has ended this wait is not so certain. Three of the judges have said: "Although we may never know with complete certainty the identity of the winner of this year's presidential election, the identity of the loser is perfectly clear. It is the nation's confidence in the judge as an impartial guardian of the rule of law."

There will be a widespread feeling now that the winner should be given time to catch up on his transition arrangements. There will also be fervent hopes that nothing else can go wrong between now and inauguration day on January 20th. Next Monday, the electoral college votes for president as laid down in the constitution. Mr Bush, with Florida under his belt, should get 271 votes, one more than the required majority. But if just two of the 538 members of the college turns out to be a "faithless elector" and switches to Gore, what then?

No one wants to think about it. But this would throw the mess into the new Congress which meets on January 6th to count the electoral votes and declare the winner. The electoral votes can be challenged in the Senate and the House of Representatives.

If the electoral wrangles have been smoothed out by January 20th and President Bush and Vice-President Dick Cheney are sworn in, what can America and the world expect from the first Republican administration since George Bush snr left the White House eight years before?

It will be the first time since the Eisenhower years of the 1950s that the Republicans will control the White House and the two Houses of Congress although in the Senate they will depend on the tie-breaker vote of Mr Cheney as presiding officer. It will take Americans and especially Democrats some time to come to terms with that situation.

By inauguration day the new president will have selected his cabinet and senior White House staff and be hoping that the Senate will approve his choices. Mr Bush will try to win over Democrats by appointing some of them to senior posts even if it annoys his own conservative wing. Feelers have already been put out to Democratic Senator John Breaux of Louisiana who would be a key figure in any future reform of social security.

At this stage the only name sure of a cabinet post is former Gen Colin Powell for Secretary of State. He had long been touted as a senior member of the Bush cabinet but his African-American credentials did nothing to help Bush with this constituency, which turned out in huge numbers to try to ensure his defeat.

Other names from his father's presidency who will serve the son include Cheney, of course, and Condoleeza Rice, the foreign affairs expert who will be Bush's National Security Adviser. Bush will not have the personal involvement in Northern Ireland of Bill Clinton and he knows far less about it than Al Gore.

The so-called "Texas Gang", the kitchen cabinet of advisers who have been running the Bush campaign from Austin for almost three years, are all assured of jobs. These include his close friend, Don Evans, the oilman who served as campaign chairman; Karl Rove, the chief strategist; Joe Allbaugh, the campaign manager; Karen Hughes, the head of communications.

On the legislative front, Bush would like to have the first phase of his ambitious tax cut proposal taken on board by Congress but because of his shaky victory, he will have to scale it back and seek accommodation with the Democrats. He should be able to find a compromise with Democrats on education reforms which he and Gore campaigned on.

In foreign and security policy, Bush will be anxious to show that he will be more decisive than Bill Clinton. Bush will probably decide fairly soon to go ahead with a missile defence system which breaches the ABM treaty with Russia but which he claims he can renegotiate successfully.

On the Middle East, Bush will want to show he has good standing in the Arab world where his father built a coalition to oppose Saddam Hussein. How he deals with the shifting political scene in Israel could be his first big test on the world scene.