Inside Politics:As Bertie Ahern's grand coalition falls apart, elements in Fianna Fáil and Labour talk up the unlikeliest of unions.
The failure of Fianna Fáil and the Greens to agree on a coalition deal has unexpectedly thrown the whole question of government formation wide open again. The Taoiseach is now likely to revert back to work on a deal with the Progressive Democrats and like-minded Independents, the first option he floated in the immediate aftermath of the election, but he could well explore other avenues.
The breakdown of the talks has given encouragement to the Fine Gael leader, Enda Kenny, that he has some chance of putting together his own coalition, despite the odds being stacked against him. More significantly it has encouraged the pro-Fianna Fáil faction in Labour to believe that a deal may yet be on, once the party has discharged its obligation to vote for Kenny as taoiseach next Thursday.
One of the Fianna Fáil negotiators, Séamus Brennan, even floated the possibility of a return to talks with the Greens although the question must arise as to why they were allowed walk out yesterday and abandon plans for a national conference to ratify coalition on Sunday if they are going to be asked to talk again.
The manner in which the talks collapsed and the range of conflicting signals emerging from Fianna Fáil suggest that all sorts of possibilities are being considered by Bertie Ahern and his key Ministers. It emerged last night that Fianna Fáil and the Progressive Democrats began talks on a new programme for government on Thursday, in parallel with the Fianna Fáil negotiations with the Greens.
A PD spokesman said that those talks had been based on the prospect of involvement in a coalition that also included the Greens but the party would now press ahead with the effort to formulate a programme for government with Fianna Fáil.
The Greens had great hopes of success when the talks began on Sunday and even though problems emerged as the days went by there was still a positive mood around yesterday morning.
The decision of the Greens to breach their own deadline of Thursday and to go back in again yesterday gave grounds for hope that a deal could be struck.
It appeared there were no great rows between the parties as the Greens outlined their six or seven key demands.
Green TD John Gormley even confessed after the talks were over that he had got to like the Fianna Fáil team and that Brian Cowen had even said that he had got to like the Green negotiators. "It was a no-fault divorce," said Gormley.
Although the atmosphere was good it appears that while the Fianna Fáil team listened carefully they made no commitments on a number of key issues. Among the key Green demands were changes in transport policy, funding for education, transformation of local government and reform of the health service. While the party refused to spell out the details it seems that the abandonment of the hospital co-location policy, changes in the road programme and specific legislative commitments on climate change were among the deal-breakers.
While Green Party leader Trevor Sargent denied that the role of the PDs in a new government was even discussed, never mind being a deal-breaker, Fianna Fáil sources suggested that it was an important background issue. It would have made perfect sense for the Greens to try and keep the PDs out, not just because of ideological differences but because it would have given Sargent and his colleagues much more leverage.
A Fianna Fáil-Green coalition without the PDs would have had a bare but workable majority of 84 seats. Even if the support of a few Independents was added to the mix, the party would have been able to exercise the ultimate sanction of bringing the government down by withdrawing from office. However, in a coalition that also involved the PDs the basic government numbers would have come to 86 and the addition of three Independents would have neutralised the capacity of the Greens to bring it down.
Ahern's attempts to build a coalition involving the Greens and PDs, plus like-minded Independents, was designed precisely to provide any new government with the safety value of being able to survive even if one of the components withdrew. He stressed the necessity for this attribute on a number of occasions and attempted to build a four-legged stool to support it. The decision of the Greens to abandon the talks has left him with three legs of widely varying strengths. He will be relying on a strong and confident Fianna Fáil parliamentary party, a severely weakened two-person PD presence and a group of five Independent with widely differing priorities.
Of course it is always possible that the Greens will go back into talks with Fianna Fáil but it is hard to see the logic involved in Brian Cowen and his colleagues allowing them to walk out yesterday if they are going to be invited back at some future stage.
To be sure of winning his third successive term as taoiseach next Thursday, Ahern will need to get the support of at least three Independents, plus the two PDs to add to the 78 Fianna Fáil votes. That is on the assumption that he can persuade one of the opposition TDs to take the position of Ceann Comhairle. If he can't do that he would need four of the Independents to get him to the magic total of 83. Of course Ahern could be elected taoiseach with fewer than 83 votes if the four Sinn Féin TDs abstain or vote for him but that would not be the basis for the kind of stable government he clearly had in mind.
The other unknown is what will happen if Fianna Fáil makes a direct approach to the Labour Party with an offer to put a really stable coalition together. During the election campaign Ahern publicly referred to his unrequited feelings for Labour. There were even rumours of intermediaries carrying tidings of the glittering prizes to be had in government for leading Labour luminaries if the party would only change its mind or change its leader.
During the election campaign Pat Rabbitte staked all on offering the voters an alternative government and he clearly ruled out going into coalition with Fianna Fáil. Some influential people in Labour wish he hadn't done that and they still harbour hopes that, once the obligation to vote for Enda Kenny is satisfied on June 14th, the party can switch sides. Former leader Ruairí Quinn appeared to suggest last night this could be on the cards.
However, there are some enormous obstacles to that outcome. Whatever about getting his election pact obligation to Fine Gael out of the way by voting for Kenny next Thursday, Rabbitte has a more important obligation to consider. That is his solemn commitment to the Irish people that he would not put Fianna Fáil back into government.
People involved in the political business would understand if Rabbitte reversed engines in the light of the election result, but the voters might not be as easily convinced. In any case he would have to get a coalition deal through a party conference and there are no guarantees that he could do that, even if he wanted to.
Rabbitte has to cope with the fact that many people in Labour are deeply despondent at the result of the election. The change in electoral strategy since 2002 made absolutely no difference to the party, although it did come within an ace of changing the government. If Labour had won two or three more seats they would be almost certain of getting into government on Thursday; it was as close as that.
The bottom line, though, is that the party did not win those extra few seats and that has led to a great deal of wailing and gnashing of teeth, particularly among those who fancy their chances of being made ministers. If there is a stalemate in the Dáil on Thursday and nobody is elected as taoiseach, those in Labour who want a deal with Fianna Fáil are likely to come into the open. How Rabbitte responds will be critical.