Talk of a new political frontier to the north has created much excitement among the Fianna Fáil ranks, writes Noel Whelan
The Taoiseach's constituency of Dublin Central was the setting for an interesting poster war during last May's election. One week into the campaign Sinn Féin erected a poster bearing just the slogan "Sinn Féin - the Republican Party". A week later Fianna Fáil replied with a similar poster saying "Fianna Fáil - the Republican Party". Not to be outdone Sinn Féin replied with "Sinn Féin - the All-Ireland Republican Party".
Sinn Féin slagging off of Fianna Fáil's 26-county limitations may have stung.
Seven months later in a New Year interview Bertie Ahern said that Fianna Fáil would "look hard" at the issue of contesting elections in Northern Ireland. His remarks created quite a stir, North and South, and one can only assume that the Taoiseach, who does nothing inadvertently, expected his utterance to have this effect.
It is a historic peculiarity that Fianna Fáil, a party whose first aim is Irish unity, should have restricted its political activity to the 26 counties. The issue of organising in the North arose shortly after the party's foundation. In 1928, for example, Lemass and others had discussions with leading Northern nationalists about a merger, but these came to nothing.
John Bowman in his book, De Valera and the Ulster Question, 1917-1973, chronicles the efforts of some Fianna Fáil executive members in the 1930s and 1940s to have the party organise in the six counties. De Valera opposed such moves. Bowman attributes this not only to a fear of splitting the nationalist vote but also to de Valera's concern that such a move might dilute his strict personal control over his party's Northern Ireland policy. Concerns that tensions might spill over into the Republic's politics were also a factor
Similar concerns influenced later Fianna Fáil leaders, who closed down such talk when it emerged in party forums.
However, in March 2002 the Fianna Fáil ardfheis passed a motion calling on the party to organise in Northern Ireland, and this is the background to Bertie Ahern's raising the issue himself. The reason advanced by Ahern for looking at the issue afresh was the fact that "the dynamic and context" of politics on this island has changed following the Good Friday agreement.
In this he is correct. Changed relationships between politicians North and South and the emergence of all-Ireland institutions have altered the context. Population trends, the growth of all-island political media and the European dimension have changed the dynamic.
Changes in the electoral systems are also a factor. Historically a fear of splitting the nationalist vote has been the best argument against Fianna Fáil contesting Northern elections. In the "first past the post" electoral system for Westminster this could have cost nationalist seats.
Now three of the four elections in the six counties which Fianna Fáil might contest - local, European and Assembly - are fought on a proportional representation system, so transfers would restrict this risk.
In addition the Good Friday agreement institutions have reduced the importance of representation in London,and so the question of attending or abstaining from the Westminster parliament, which might otherwise have been a stumbling block for Fianna Fáil, is also less significant.
In any case proposals from the Oireachtas All-Party Committee on the Constitution that MPs from Northern Ireland might also have rights of audience in Dáil Éireann may also have changed this dynamic.
The emergence of Sinn Féin as a significant electoral player has also had a crucial impact. Fianna Fáil has watched, with some envy, Sinn Féin's ability to operate on a constant electoral footing, with at least one election to fight each year North or South.
Sinn Féin has developed a cadre of battle-hardened electoral workers and officials deployable wherever elections are to be fought on the island. Its advance also means that Fianna Fáil and the SDLP have a common political competitor targeting pockets of their support bases.
However, it is the fortunes of the SDLP which will have the greatest bearing on Fianna Fáil's decision on how and when to organise in Northern Ireland. Some contend that a setback in the Assembly elections, currently scheduled for May, could destabilise the SDLP and provide rich pickings for a Fianna Fáil organisation.
This is unnecessarily predatory. Mark Durkan and his team dismiss rumours of their party's demise. However, the political landscape will be clearer once the Assembly election results are in. If doubts persist about SDLP durability in the era following Good Friday and Hume, pressure may come on that party to restructure in the interests of providing mainstream nationalism with an alternative voice to Sinn Féin.
Mark Durkan has been dismissive of suggestions of a merger with Fianna Fáil, conscious no doubt that such talk fuels instability in his own party. However, he has previously talked of the likely "emergence of new political complexions on this island". Interestingly Tom Kelly, a member of the SDLP executive, supported the idea of a Fianna Fáil-SDLP merger in a recent article penned for the London Observer.
Talk of a new political frontier to the north has created much excitement among the Fianna Fáil ranks. The genie is now out of the bottle; Bertie Ahern himself has pulled the cork. The question for Fianna Fáil now is whether the realignment of which Ahern speaks sees the party in competition with existing nationalist parties or alternatively some kind of amalgamation or strategic alliance with the SDLP.
Noel Whelan is a former political organiser at Fianna Fáil headquarters and the author of a number of books