Several pieces of news this week reinforced arguments in favour of the Kyoto Protocol on Climate Change on the first anniversary of its entry into force. Putting it in place as an obligatory commitment has already created a far more informed debate in Ireland and around the world, even if the limits it imposes are quite insufficient to reverse the relentless rise in global warming.
It was revealed by a group of Californian scientists that Greenland's glaciers are releasing millions of tonnes of water into the Atlantic at a rate three times faster than 10 years ago. In Britain, scientists calculated this could cause sea levels in these islands to rise by over 11 metres by the year 3000 if the trend continues. Another study found the earth is hotter now than for 100,000 years. And yet another shows that a further 300 years of greenhouse gas emissions from industries and automobiles will have the same effect as that which saw global temperatures rise dramatically by five degrees centigrade 55 million years ago. The tipping point now is considered to be two degrees and changes over the past 100 years have brought us three-quarters of the way there.
Such evidence is steadily accumulating. But it is exceedingly difficult to generate the required degree of urgency about it because there is a substantial time lag between taking action and seeing its effects. It helps, therefore, to take a much longer view of human and natural history to put the issue in context. One of the great achievements of the Kyoto exercise has been to raise consciousness about these issues and to concentrate scientific research on them. It is, of course, only a start for an initial period of seven years - and far more cutbacks in emissions will be required if existing trends are to be reversed.
This has been brought home by the publication this week of the Environmental Protection Agency's revised and updated figures on greenhouse gas emissions in this State for the period 1990-2004. They show there was a rise in overall emissions in 2004 after reductions in the two previous years. The figures register increases in the transport, residential and cement sectors in that year, although there were decreases in energy and agriculture. This reflects higher economic activity - a trend that continued in 2005. All this puts Ireland well above its Kyoto target, with emission rates 23.5 per cent higher than in 1990. Under the protocol we are required to limit this growth to 13 per cent above the 1990 level between 2008 and 2012 and will be heavily fined if this is not achieved by real reduction or quota trading.
It is now up to Minister for the Environment Dick Roche to see to it that the consultation document he is about to produce, with the aim of revising the Government's National Climate Change Strategy (2000), contains a range of serious and credible measures to deal with this looming crisis. If this means stepping on the toes of vested interests, such as the concrete industry, so be it. Blather and bluster will get us nowhere if we are to meet these difficult targets.