For a referendum on such a fundamental issue as citizenship - who is Irish? the case for changing the Constitution is not proven. That is the main finding of the latest Irish Times/TNSmrbi opinion poll which will be voted upon with the European and local elections on June 11th. It shows that the citizenship referendum, tagged on as the tail of the elections, is not the "no brainer" that many politicians claim privately.
The referendum is intended to qualify the provision in the Belfast Agreement - voted upon in the first all-Ireland poll in 80 years in 1998 - to remove the automatic right to Irish citizenship from children born on the island of Ireland. It proposes to limit it to those who have at least one parent who has been lawfully resident in the State for three of the last four years. The poll finds that a clear majority of 54 per cent will vote to remove the automatic right of such children to citizenship while 24 per cent will vote No. Some 22 per cent, more than one in five voters, are undecided or don't know.
There are large majorities in Dublin, Leinster and Connacht/Ulster in favour of the referendum but, somewhat surprisingly, only 44 per cent are voting for the change in Munster. There are majorities in all parties for the referendum - including the Labour Party (54 per cent), the Green Party (54 per cent) and Sinn Féin (56 per cent) which are opposing it. The party most in favour of the change in citizenship is the Progressive Democrats - 73 per cent to Fianna Fáil's 60 per cent - despite the claims that members are divided on the issue.
It is interesting that the over-65 age-group - 50 per cent in favour - is least enamoured with the proposal. They have the greatest reservations about moving, as former Senator Bruce Morrison of the United States has described it, from territorial citizenship to ethnic citizenship. Perhaps the older generation has the most vivid memory of discrimination against thousands of uneducated Irish emigrants forced to flee to foreign lands to make a living which could not be afforded to them at home. There is a bare majority of 51 per cent among 18-24 year-olds for the referendum.
For all of that, the poll indicates that the referendum will be passed comfortably. But, a substantial minority of voters have real reservations about restricting the historic right to Irish citizenship which has prevailed in legislation, and later constitutionally under the Belfast Agreement, in this State. There is a sense of unease where the heart rules the head. The referendum arrived from nowhere - without due consultation with the Opposition parties, without a Green Paper, without due consideration by the Joint Oireachtas Committee on the Constitution.
It is dangerous, as the SDLP has advised, to tamper unilaterally with the template of the Belfast Agreement. The Chen case is a mere excuse for small-mindedness in a State which needs migrant workers. The abuse of our citizenship has not been proven.