The publication of the demographic volume of the 2006 census has provided us for the first time with a fix on the number of people of other nationalities residing in our State following the large-scale immigration of recent years, writes Garret FitzGerald.
Until last week all we had to go on were two incomplete sets of figures: the number of immigrants applying to the Department for Social and Family Affairs for PPS numbers that would entitle them to take up employment here; and the number of people at work who were recorded as foreign nationals in the CSO's Quarterly National Household Survey (QNHS). Neither of these were adequate in measuring of the size of our immigrant population.
The PPS data - which for the first two years of the opening of the labour market to workers from Eastern Europe were the only figures available - gave a completely exaggerated picture of the scale of participation of eastern Europeans in our workforce.
This was partly because many of those who sought and secured such numbers did not in fact take up employment here, but even more because a very large number of these people worked here for only a brief period - returning then to their own countries with what they had saved from their wages. And there was no method of recording such departures.
Because for the first 21 months of free entry from eastern Europe these PPS numbers were the only figures available in respect of foreign workers, a hugely exaggerated impression was given of the number of immigrants remaining in Ireland, which fed dangerously into anti-immigrant prejudices. I found that even senior officials concerned with policy issues became convinced that the number of resident immigrants from eastern Europe was twice as large as was in fact the case.
Just over a year ago the CSO began publishing new data derived from the QNHS, which provided estimates of the number of people at work who are foreign nationals.
There was some doubt, however, as to the comprehensiveness of this data, which, moreover, was incomplete, in that it excluded dependants.
Thus the true figures for our rapidly growing immigrant population had to await last week's publication of the demographic volume of the 2006 census. What does this volume tell us?
First, that by April last year there were 420,000 people resident here who were not Irish nationals, 200,000 more than four years earlier. The post-May 2004 eastern and central European influx accounted for three-fifths of this increase, that is 120,000, with Poles accounting for just over half of this and Latvians and Lithuanians for almost a third.
Nine out of 10 of these eastern European immigrants were of working age - they seem to have brought very few dependants with them. So the number at work here a year ago must have been fairly close to, but probably above, the 88,000 figure for workers recorded by the QNHS.
This contrasts sharply with the fact that 210,000 eastern Europeans had acquired PPS numbers during this two-year period, some of whom may have been people who did not use their PPS number to enter employment here, but about half of them were clearly temporary migrants who worked here for only a limited period. This half of the influx had returned home before the census was taken in April last year.
In the four-year period since the last census the number of Asians here had also more than doubled to 45,000, and the number of Africans had risen by three-quarters to 35,000. The number of people from western European countries had risen by one-half, but the number with British nationality had grown by only one-tenth.
A key feature of both eastern and western European immigrants was that very few of them - fewer than one in 10 - were children, and only a tiny number were retired people. This contrasts sharply with our indigenous population, one-third of whom fall into these two dependant categories.
Thus the burden these European immigrants impose on our educational system is a relatively light one.
Nevertheless, when the other immigrant groups are also taken into account, by April last year the total number of immigrant children under 15 exceeded 50,000. It is true that 20,000 of these came from Britain or other English-speaking counties, many of them the children of returning immigrants, but that still left us with 30,000 children who must have language problems.
As I have argued before in this column, if such children form too large a proportion of the number in a particular school this could cause problems. First of all this may make integration more difficult, for if the immigrant children form too large a proportion of the pupils, they may stick together, thus isolating themselves.
Moreover too large a proportion of children with limited English in the same class may make it difficult for both Irish and immigrant children to make progress with their education.
If immigrants are spread around different areas, that problem will not arise, but where they congregate in an area for mutual support, as often happens, it may be necessary to encourage a spread of children between different schools, which might involve special bussing arrangements. The Department of Education and Science need to take this point on board.
Finally what do we know of developments since the census was taken 12 months ago? Between May 2006 and last February, the flow of applications for PPS numbers has risen by about one-sixth, because a somewhat increased flow from Poland, Slovakia and Hungary has been only partly offset by a small drop in the number coming from the Baltic states.
On the basis of the past relationships between demand for PPS numbers and emigrants living here, this would suggest that the total number of eastern European immigrants now living here could be about 190,000, of whom about 110,000 would be Poles.
In the case of Lithuania this would mean that 1 per cent of its people had now moved to Ireland!
Up to now this immigrant flow has been accommodated without any impact on our low unemployment figures. But, with the growth of GNP now forecast by the ESRI to drop from 7.4 per cent last year to 3.9 per cent next year, and with the growth of employment now expected to be three-fifths lower in 2008 than in 2006, the immigration flow will need to adjust rapidly to what looks like becoming a much less favourable employment environment.
The ESRI is projecting a drop of two-fifths in net immigration next year, which it believes would keep unemployment well below 5 per cent. One must hope that the institute is right in its assessment of the sensitivity of eastern European immigration to Irish economic conditions.