Fianna Fáil can hope to retain its six seats in the European Parliament, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll, but it faces almost certain losses on various local authorities.With almost three weeks to go until the local and European elections, the situation is very fluid. The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, will take heart, however, from the poll indications that the electoral drubbing feared last year may now be avoided.
The party's fortunes have been closely linked to the performance of the economy and, as business confidence recovered during the past six months, support for the party rose.
Fine Gael will maintain its representation in the four European constituencies and may gain a seat through Ms Mairead McGuinness in the East. The Green Party is at risk of becoming the big loser in the elections because the seat held by retiring MEP, Ms Nuala Ahern, is unlikely to be retained, while Ms Patricia McKenna could crash out in Dublin. Mr Peter Cassells stands to win a seat for the Labour Party in the East, while the Independent candidate, Ms Marian Harkin, could replace outgoing MEP, Dana Rosemary Scallon, in the North West. Another Independent, Ms Kathy Sinnott, has the potential to become a surprise winner in the South. And Sinn Féin candidates are expected to poll well.
There are plenty of surprises in the figures, with Fianna Fáil's Mr Royston Brady enjoying a commanding lead over his colleague, Mr Eoin Ryan, in Dublin, while support for Ms Scallon has collapsed in the North West. But European election campaigns tend to be slow burners, with patterns emerging at a late stage as candidate-recognition factors come into play. Much could change in a matter of weeks, compared to the local elections where outcomes tend to be more predictable.
In those contests, Fianna Fáil is likely to lose a substantial number of seats and the control of a handful of county councils. Adjusted support is down eight points on the party's performance in the 1999 elections and there are indications that voters are determined to subject Fianna Fáil to some mid-term punishment.
In that regard, stated support for its local election candidates does not match that for the party. Approval for Fine Gael has increased in recent months, but the party's showing - at 24 per cent - would not allow it to claim the same number of seats it won in 1999.
The Labour Party has seen its support rise by six points in the same period and it stands to recover lost ground, while Sinn Féin is poised for a significant breakthrough at local level. The Green Party and the Progressive Democrats could also take extra seats.
On a broader canvas, Fianna Fáil and Fine Gael gained ground in recent months, while backing for the Labour Party remained static. There is no obvious trend towards government-formation. The support for Sinn Féin has fallen as the party has come under close public scrutiny. There are stirrings in the political undergrowth with three weeks to go to voting.