China's boom

There seems to be no stopping the growth of China's economy

There seems to be no stopping the growth of China's economy. Over the past few years it has emerged as a major force in the world economy and is now a leading player in many sectors of manufacturing. Whatever the challenges it faces in maintaining this progress - which range from overheating to huge environmental issues - there is no question but that the influence of China in international economic affairs will continue to grow.

In the short term, overheating is a threat. Despite recent efforts by the authorities to curb credit growth and slow investment in some industrial sectors, growth remains very rapid - close to 10 per cent in the first half of this year - raising concerns about a future reversal. The International Monetary Fund (IMF) this week added its voice to the debate, warning that a "soft landing" for China's economy was not yet assured.

The massive scale of construction evident in almost every Chinese city bears testament to the break-neck speed of China's economic advance. The building boom is putting severe pressure on China's transport and power infrastructure with rolling blackouts in many cities now a common occurrence. Surging Chinese demand for oil, coal and steel is also central to the rapid increase in the prices of raw materials on world markets.

So far the Chinese authorities have employed a raft of administrative measures in an attempt to slow its economic growth. The government is delaying the issuing of permits needed to begin certain types of investment projects, instructing banks to tighten their lending policies and warning local officials of tough penalties if they ignore its edicts. The success of these measures is difficult to analyse, given the lack of reliable statistics. However, using administrative measures to cool an economy tends to be a rather blunt economic instrument.

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A more effective way to tackle runaway growth - and cool the property market - might be for the Chinese government to tighten monetary policy by increasing interest rates to make borrowing more expensive. The IMF suggests that China should loosen the yuan's peg to the dollar, a move that would also assuage concerns about the flood of cheap exports into world markets.

The rapid growth of the Chinese economy is now having a significant impact on this State. The forthcoming closure of the Unifi textile plant in Letterkenny is directly related to the rise of China as the global centre of the textile trade.

China's booming economy also offers huge opportunities for Irish firms in a range of sectors from software to engineering. Since the Government published its Strategy for the Development of Foreign Earnings in Asia in late 1999, Irish exports to China have more than tripled to €585 million per year. Bearing in mind China's continued robust economic growth the potential to increase trade further can only be very significant.