THIS YEAR it is 30 years since the beginning of China's economic reform programme and next year it will be 60 years since the 1949 revolution and 20 years since the violent suppression of the Tiananmen democratic rebellion by student and workers.
Anniversaries are an important ingredient of Chinese political culture. These three concern central features of its economic and political system. Can communism, capitalism and democracy co-exist or must there be an evolution beyond the 1949 settlement if the last two are to flourish? How volatile will next year's ceremonies be, given that they will occur in the middle of a severe economic downturn which is already testing social stability with popular protests over party corruption, land grabs, growing inequalities and factory closures? These are two of the most important questions facing Chinese and, indeed, world affairs in coming years.
In his speech to yesterday's meeting of Communist Party leaders, state and military officials in Beijing President Hu Jintao was quite clear that no evolution towards a western-style democracy is contemplated by - or acceptable to - the leadership. Economic development is the primary goal; but only one-party rule is capable of providing the stability necessary for a harmonious society, he argued. And yet he frankly acknowledged the difficulties posed by the downturn for China's highly trade dependent economy, now the world's fourth largest.
Growth is already sharply down from two-digit to single digit figures and could diminish to a mere 5 per cent next year - a radical change on the last 15 years. In response, the government has launched the biggest stimulus package announced anywhere this year in an effort to switch activity from exports to domestic growth. There is plenty of scope for that to work, given China's uneven and unequal socio-economic development, but such a shift will take time and is not easy to execute amid the international and home-based turmoil.
That social protests and political discontent could converge next year was an unspoken theme of yesterday's gathering of leaders. Yet the Communist Party is still strong and durable. It continues to recruit ambitious young members and is now predominantly a middle- class rather than a working-class organisation. Most Chinese probably accept the argument that ensuring economic growth is the best way to develop their society, despite the massive costs and disparities. But growing numbers of them are also willing to speak out in protest.