WITH 44 days to go to the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty on June 12th a survey by the Referendum Commmission reveals that 80 per cent of respondents say either they do not understand it particularly well or do not understand it at all.
Only 5 per cent say they are well-informed and a further 15 per cent understand it to some extent. The commission's plans to distribute two million explanatory booklets to every household, announced yesterday, are welcome and people cannot claim ignorance of the treaty if they do not give themselves the time to read them. Voters can learn a lot in a short time, but it is essential that the quality and accuracy of political debate should allow this. So far that has certainly not been the case.
The latest opinion poll, in the Sunday Business Post, shows a sharp narrowing between the Yes and No sides to a 35-31 per cent margin in favour, with 34 per cent undecided. Most farmers now oppose the treaty, presumably following the IFA's linkage of the Lisbon Treaty to the outcome of World Trade Organisation negotiations next month. There is considerable uncertainty and division among Fine Gael and Labour voters.
These findings are a shock to the Yes campaign - and a necessary one if they are to mobilise effectively in the next six weeks. Despite their considerable efforts the Government and political leaders who favour the treaty have so far failed to communicate effectively their arguments about why it should be passed. Their campaign needs to step up its momentum sharply and immediately. That needs to start with the Cabinet, right through the Coalition parties, including their TDs, councillors and members. All need to carry their weight. They need to convince the widespread business, trade union, civil society and pressure groups that favour the treaty to get out and argue the case for it, and above all not to abstain because of ignorance. The transition between Bertie Ahern and Brian Cowen as taoiseach may have slowed down the pace and urgency of this process. Ground lost now is not easily retrieved.
The legal form taken by the Lisbon Treaty as amendments to previous treaty texts makes it sound more difficult for citizens to follow. That is not the case. The Lisbon Treaty has an architecture like any other treaty, agreement or Bill, agreeing concrete actions, defining future aspirations. Contrary to what the No side says, it can, and will, be explained to the electorate. It is far less difficult than Bunreacht na hÉireann. In a representative democracy it is the job of political and social leaders, and media, to open up informed debate and argument which can frame voters' choices. People learn as much from these deliberative processes as from the passive receipt of information.
The Referendum Commission's decision that it reserves the right to issue supplementary reports and information in the light of the campaign debate is well-judged in these circumstances. It is important that it is respected in its role to provide independent and non-partisan information to voters. Accept it or reject it, it is an insult to claim that this treaty is beyond the comprehension of voters.