Coalition Options

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, availed of the opportunity of the two-day Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting in Kilkenny this week…

The Taoiseach, Mr Ahern, availed of the opportunity of the two-day Fianna Fail parliamentary party meeting in Kilkenny this week to outline his coalition preferences following the next general election. ein unless that party resolved its relationship with the IRA, "as Fianna Fail did in the past at the time of its formation". His preferred coalition partner would be his current one, the Progressive Democrats. What was most noticeable, however, was his taunting overture to the Labour Party to keep the Fianna Fail option open after the next election.

The findings of today's Irish Times/MRBI opinion poll make an interesting contribution to the coalition debate at a time when the Fianna Fail leader, together with every other party leader in the Dail, now accepts that a combination of two or more parties will form the next government. Four main options are favoured equally by 14 per cent of voters: a coalition of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, Fianna Fail and Labour, Fianna Fail and the PDs, and Fine Gael and Labour.

The headline figures give little clear guidance about the preferences of voters at this stage, possibly because the Taoiseach wants all to believe that the Government is going to run its full course, remaining in office for another 21 months. The real story is to be found in the small print of the poll with the breakdown of party preferences.

The main finding of the poll is that a Fine Gaelled coalition is favoured by twice as many Labour supporters as a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition. A clear majority of Labour voters - 55 per cent - would prefer Fine Gael-led coalition combinations of two or three parties compared to the 27 per cent who want Labour to enter government with Fianna Fail.

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The poll also reveals several interesting trends among supporters of the different parties. A fifth of Fianna Fail and Fine Gael voters would favour a coalition of the two big parties. The highest preference among Fianna Fail supporters is for a Fianna Fail/PD coalition (32 per cent) followed by 25 per cent for a Fianna Fail/Labour coalition. The highest preference among Fine Gael supporters is for a Fine Gael/Labour coalition. More Fine Gael supporters (13 per cent) would like to see the PDs in a three-party coalition than the Green Party (7 per cent). The highest preference among PD supporters is for a Fianna Fail/PD coalition with 26 per cent favouring a Fine Gael/ Labour/PD coalition.

The positioning for the next election will begin in earnest with the opening of the new Dail session on Tuesday. The two main parties, Fianna Fail and Fine Gael, are wooing the Labour Party. Some voters are still smarting from Mr Dick Spring's post-election decision to enter coalition with Fianna Fail in 1992. The challenge for Mr Ruairi Quinn, based on this poll, is how to keep the Fianna Fail coalition option open, without alienating the majority of his supporters.