The numbers applying for third-level education have dropped significantly for the first time, according to Central Applications Office (CAO) figures released yesterday.
The total number of applicants is just over 60,000, down from more than 62,500 a year ago. Most courses have seen a decline in applications. The numbers seeking to study arts and humanities, business and engineering have all declined.
And once again, there is no sign of an increase in interest in science and computing. This is despite the efforts of government and business to underpin economic development by promoting these sectors as potentially lucrative career opportunities.
There has been a rise in applications for health courses. This may reflect the huge publicity generated by the sector in recent years and, perhaps, a confidence among applicants (and their parents) that there is no shortage of employment within the health services.
The decline in the number of CAO applications has taken the universities and the institutes of technology by surprise. While the fall in the number of school-leavers has been signalled for years, it was expected that a boom in mature students would compensate. The latest figures indicate that this is not happening. The Government wants 15 per cent of all students to be adult learners by 2006. This was the target set by its White Paper on Adult Education three years ago, but the reality is an adult participation rate of less than five per cent in most colleges. Indeed, some reported yesterday that the number of adult learners applying for next year was actually falling.
The latest figures may have more far-reaching implications for third-level institutions if the decline in applications signals the beginning of a trend. After two decades of unprecedented growth, the sector must adapt to changing circumstances. By some estimates, the number taking the Leaving Cert will decline from a peak of more than 60,000 five years ago to only 46,000 by 2007. One Higher Education Authority report has predicted a 35 per cent drop in school-leavers by 2012.
The Government would like to see the spare capacity in the system being allocated to mature students and to students from lower socio-economic groups. But the record in relation to both groups is patchy, at best.
There is much to ponder here for the OECD as it prepares its review of third-level education in the Republic. What practical steps should the Government be taking if it really wants to meet its targets on adult education and access for poorer students? And more controversially, should college tuition fees come back on the agenda?