A wall is going up. Not coming down. This is not Berlin in 1989. The UK's vote to leave the EU has led to fears of a new barrier between Northern Ireland and the Republic. South of the Irish Border is not Mexico, but those who voted for Brexit want to close the backdoor to Britain for uncontrolled imports and immigrants.
It's a time for serious political and economic engagement between the North and South. Yet the public reaction of some political leaders is fanciful. They have raised the possibility of a referendum in Northern Ireland on Irish unity.
Hardly had votes been counted, showing that a majority in Northern Ireland wished to remain in the EU, than Sinn Féin’s Martin McGuinness claimed it meant the “British government has forfeited any mandate to represent the economic or political interests of the people” in the North. “Any” mandate, Martin? Is there a unionist of “any” kind who agrees with you?
One expects no more of Sinn Féin. But for Fine Gael and Fianna Fáil also to raise the prospect of a Border poll is disturbing. Are they so fearful that Sinn Féin has stolen a march on them?
Unity myth
There is not a snowball’s chance in hell of most Northerners, never mind most unionists, voting for Irish unity in the immediate future.
Enda Kenny
and Micheál Martin admitted as much this week. So why raise it?
What might be achieved is closer pragmatic co-operation between North and South. That requires gentle diplomacy and skill, not triumphalism in the face of Northern Ireland’s humiliation by Brexit.
One might have hoped for a more sober approach in Dublin. Instead, first came megaphone diplomacy as the Government proposed an ill-defined all-Ireland forum on the effects of Brexit. Forums, citizen assemblies and committees are no substitute for government.
The Taoiseach's proposal for a new forum was in return publicly slapped down by Northern Ireland First Minister Arlene Foster. Closer co-operation does not need such a body, and if it did then a premature decision by one side was not how to achieve it.
By raising for unionists the spectre of a united Ireland at this sensitive time, nationalist leaders indulged themselves while achieving nothing. Here was a chance to bring the North and South closer but our leaders could not contain themselves and made real progress harder.
Some unionists, like millions of Conservative supporters in England, voted to stay in the EU. This does not mean that the idea of being part of the Republic now thrills them. For reasons why they might not jump with joy at that prospect, just open an Irish newspaper any day of the week. It will be a while yet before Border guards have to shoot unionists trying to leap over any new Irish Border to freedom in the South.
Germany no equivalent
The Taoiseach reportedly said last week that Irish unification might be possible, How? “In the same way as East Germany was dealt with when the wall came down, was able to be absorbed into West Germany; and not to have a tortuous and long process applying for membership of the
European Union
. ”
This was a triply odd statement. For one thing, Germany before 1990 was a country divided by an imposed dictatorship, and not two separate jurisdictions in which respective majorities had oppositional histories and identities.
For another, the Taoiseach seems to equate the Republic of Ireland with West Germany, seeing it set to “absorb” Northern Ireland, and not vice versa. “Absorption” is a long way from parity of esteem. The Irish economy is a long way from Germany.
Kenny also envisages Northern Ireland perhaps wishing to go its own way in order to apply for EU membership. That will not happen, due to the size and nature of Northern Ireland, and especially due to the wishes of a majority of its people who want to remain part of the UK even if Scotland does not.
Rational case
The Republic must put its own house in order to build a persuasive rational case for reunification, a case that must convince majorities on both sides of the Border that the reunification of Ireland is a good option for each.
That great pragmatist Arthur Griffith, who knew well the challenges of bringing all Ireland down one road, once lamented that when it comes to the public "you can't move 'em with a cold thing like economics". But there is more chance of moving unionists with economics than with talk of all-Ireland forums or a Border poll.