The surprise defeat of India's ruling coalition, dominated by the Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party and its leader, Mr Atal Behari Vajpayee, is a stunning victory for democracy in that huge country as well as for the opposition Congress party which will now lead an alternative government. Voting for the 543-seat Lok Sabha or lower house of the parliament has been going on for three weeks, involving a gargantuan organisational effort to bring electronic voting to the 370 million who voted.
The result is a decisive rejection of Mr Vajpayee's coalition, especially by tens of millions of the rural poor who felt left out of the new prosperity he proclaimed to have brought the country. He campaigned on a slogan, "India Shining", which boasted of a 7 per cent growth rate in recent years, based on a more open and liberalised economy. The huge software sector has benefited from extensive service outreaching by European and US firms. Mr Vajpayee says 100 million people have been lifted from poverty as a result. The opposition does not deny the growth or its consequences but has denounced growing inequalities between the urban middle and upper classes and the country's 700 million rural poor. In many parts of India electricity, water and roads are luxuries, while health and education policies are highly favourable to the rich and better off.
Mr Vajpayee's message rebounded on him amongst the poor. Their frustration was skilfully harnessed by the Congress party led by Ms Sonia Gandhi, the Italian-born wife of Rajiv Gandhi, who was assassinated in 1991. She, along with her son Rahul, daughter Priyanka, and the party's national leadership, put factionalism and ineffective opposition behind them during the campaign and attracted huge popular support for a more egalitarian platform. Socio-economic issues predominated in the national voting, mirrored throughout India's many regions, where local political dynasties and parties have been toppled in these results. Mr Vajpayee hoped a good monsoon and improved relations with Pakistan would supplement the economic feelgood factor he relied on to bring him back to power; but he miscalculated badly - as did many pundits and opinion pollsters.
The Congress party is not expected to secure the 272 seats needed for an outright majority, so will have to bargain with smaller parties - probably left-wing ones who also did well in the elections; but the parliament will not be hung. Initial indications are that the new government will continue the more open, competitive policies that have created growth but aim to distribute India's wealth more fairly. Congress will lead a much more secular coalition - symbolised by the failure of Ms Gandhi's opponents in labelling her a foreign-born interloper who does not deserve support. Assuming she does become prime minister, she may have difficulty reassuring markets and investors and re-establishing good relations with Pakistan. But this result dramatically confirms her credibility.