Next week's Budget will be the first clear indication of whether Government economic policy has changed after the Cabinet reshuffle. The Minister for Finance, Mr Cowen, is expected to take a fairly conservative overall stance, aiming to keep Exchequer borrowing at a relatively low level.
The rise in day to day spending is expected to be kept broadly in line with expected economic growth. The first Budget-day message will be that the prudent approach of the last few years will continue.
Today's pre-Budget figures from the Department of Finance indicate that Mr Cowen is in a reasonably comfortable position as he heads into his first Budget. He will be able to plan for a social welfare and tax package well in excess of that seen over the past couple of years and should also afford some further increase in capital investment spending plans for next year, above and beyond what has already been announced in the Estimates.
What about the details of the package? In line with the "caring" image which the Government is trying to promote - not to mention the Taoiseach's emergence as a socialist - the indications are that the Budget will have specific measures aimed at the less well-off. The "pro-enterprise" philosophy propounded by Mr McCreevy will be leavened by commitments in the Budget to promoting equity and helping the less well-off. But will these be reflected in the detail of the package?
There should certainly be scope for a social welfare package which delivers real improvements in living standards to the less well-off. The Minister has already promised a package aimed at those with disabilities and may also choose to target other specific groups, such as carers. As part of the budgetary process, the new Minister for Social and Family Affairs, Mr Brennan, should put forward a package of priorities for the remaining years of the Government's term - and how he plans to achieve them.
The other main focus will be the tax package. A reasonable sum should be available for tax relief, but equally the days of major reductions - as seen in a number of budgets in the late 1990s - are over. The focus now should be on maintaining the general tax burden around current levels, tackling anomalies and making sure the system evolves in an equitable manner. Where relief above and beyond inflation can be granted in Budget 2005, it should be concentrated on lower earners and the most effective way of doing this is to increase tax credits. This would deliver benefits to all taxpayers but give the greatest proportional gain to lower earners. Some adjustment of the standard rate tax band to stop more middle income earners being pushed into the higher rate band would also be appropriate.
Steady as she goes is likely to be the key message for Mr Cowen. But the relatively healthy state of the Exchequer finances also gives him the opportunity to put his own stamp on budgetary policy and to set out a course for the remaining years of the Government's term.