This week or next, unless every political antenna in the State is malfunctioning and unless every pundit has got it wrong, the Taoiseach, Mr Bruton, will go to Aras an Uachtarain and will request the President to dissolve the 27th Dail. By process of elimination the most likely date for the general election will be June 6th.
But it would not he surprising if Mr Bruton were now just a shade less sure of the wisdom of a June election than he was a month ago. Disturbing ripples are spreading on the hitherto calm waters of the money marketplace. Who knows what the days ahead may bring for the pound, for interest rates and for the sense of well being which has built over recent months? And there can be no doubt that the Taoiseach's credibility continues to suffer over his contradictory statements to the Hamilton and McCracken tribunals.
Mr Bruton has offered an explanation which is credible only if one allows for a great gap between what he says was in his head and what came out of his mouth. There are resonances of his Dail responses of two years ago ("You didn't ask the right questions") when he was similarly embarrassed. The kindest verdict on the contradictory tribunal declarations is to put them down to his sometimes disarming vagueness and retreat from detail. But not everybody will be so generous. And the conviction is abroad that with Fine Gael substantially damaged by the Lowry affair it can ill afford to have its leader's account of important events under suspicion as well.
Whether it has been damaged more or less than Fianna Fail by the tribunal revelations is the question which must now engage the minds of Government party strategists. It remains to be seen to what extent the public sees Mr Charles Haughey's sins - real or imagined as deserving of being borne also by the party which set him up as leader and Taoiseach. There is a good deal of sympathy across party lines for the predicament in which Mr Bertie Ahern has been left by Mr Haughey's behaviour. But Fine Gael has clearly decided that its best course is to nail Mr Haughey's alleged misdeeds to Mr Ahern's door. Hence the weekend urgings by Mr Ivan Yates to Mr Ahern that he should publicly call upon Mr Haughey to provide answers to the McCracken tribunal.
None of the main parties faces into the coming election unscathed by what has emerged so far in the Dunnes saga and the auguries are that a great deal of dirt is likely to be thrown by all sides. It would be regrettable if that were to form the agenda rather than the serious issues of policy and competence which face this State over the lifetime of the next Dail. The electorate may be more discerning than the politicians give it credit for. It can recognise the injustice of saddling Bertie Ahern with the actions of his predecessor once removed. And it can recognise that whatever the reason for John Bruton giving two different versions of his fundraising activities there is no serious issue over his personal probity.
The coming election will place a government in office which will be charged with exceptional responsibilities. Constitutional issues on Europe have to be faced. Final decisions on monetary union have to be taken. A new settlement in the North remains to be defined. The economic success must be nurtured and built upon and policies for social equity must be developed. When Mr Bruton makes his call to the President and when the election campaign is officially declared on, these are the areas on which the public debate must be focused. The electorate knows that too. Gurrier instincts and no party has a monopoly of them - will be given rein at a cost.