The Government is sleepwalking towards possible defeat in the referendum on the Lisbon Treaty. Fewer than one in eight voters is satisfied with their understanding of the issues involved, while more than two-thirds of those questioned lacked basic information, according to the latest Irish Times/TNS mrbi opinion poll.
A similar pattern emerged before the Nice Treaty was first rejected in 2001.
Due warning about the depth of voter anxiety concerning EU reforms, originally circulated as a far more ambitious EU constitution, was issued 18 months ago when - following defeat in France and the Netherlands - a majority of Irish respondents indicated they would reject the proposals. And while voters have now signalled they are prepared to accept these more modest reforms by a margin of more than two to one, the fact that nearly two-thirds of the electorate has yet to make up its mind should ring alarm bells for Government.
The Taoiseach has yet to set a referendum date and has been criticised by Fine Gael leader Enda Kenny that this delay has facilitated the circulation of "misinformation". The public remains largely ignorant of the issues involved and it will take a determined and co-ordinated campaign by all the major parties if that knowledge deficit is to be countered in advance of a referendum. Fianna Fáil, Fine Gael, the Labour Party and the Progressive Democrats have come out in support of the Lisbon Treaty while the Green Party stands aloof and has permitted its members to campaign either way.
Formal speeches and press statements have, in the past, proved inadequate as a means of engaging and convincing voters. No political party would depend solely on such methods in a general election campaign. Active campaigning in towns and cities, with the involvement of elected representatives and party organisations, will be required for a majority of voters to ratify these changes.
Sinn Féin is the only Dáil party to formally oppose the treaty and a majority of its decided supporters intend to vote No. The level of knowledge within its support base is similar to that of the pro-treaty parties, however, where the greater number have indicated a determination to vote Yes. In all parties, more than half of the respondents remain undecided.
Taking the electorate for granted is a dangerous business, as Bertie Ahern found out to his cost when the Nice Treaty was rejected in the first referendum seven years ago. Issues of enlargement, immigration, loss of sovereignty and the establishment of a rapid reaction force fuelled debate, but political complacency and an extremely low turnout were the deciding factors. There are grounds for concern this time. If the referendum is perceived as a way to punish the Taoiseach and the Government for his tribunal tribulations, the slowdown in the property market and the economy, voters may vent their wrath in the referendum. The referendum on the Lisbon Treaty is not the platform on which to do so.