The military crisis between India and Pakistan has been brought to a head by a combination of diplomatic intervention and the timetable imposed by the impending monsoon season, which would postpone war between the two nuclear states.
India yesterday gave Pakistan 72 hours to make good on the promise given to Mr Richard Armitage, the US under-secretary of state, that it would prevent infiltration of Islamic militants across the line of control in Kashmir. If that is delivered upon, there is a real prospect that the dangerous confrontation involving 1.2 million troops can be scaled down.
The crisis has crept up fast on an unsuspecting world. During the war against the Taliban and al-Qaeda in Afghanistan, the Pakistani leader, General Pervez Musharraf, gained leverage with the United States, just as he had to resist pressure from Islamic militants and their sympathisers in his military establishment. Their focus shifted from Afghanistan to Kashmir, made easier by his sponsorship of more militant policies there. This deflection was not fully appreciated internationally. But the tension in Kashmir erupted in attacks on the Indian parliament and led to communal rioting in Gujarat state, bringing the conflict to boiling point over recent months.
Both states are nuclear armed. Both leaderships are vulnerable to political pressure from strongly entrenched groups with an interest in escalating the conflict. While US influence remains profoundly important, it has its own agenda; Chinese influence on Pakistan and Russian influence on India are waning. These large powers continue to supply arms to both sides. The Bush administration has so altered US nuclear doctrine as to conceive that such weapons might be used tactically, rather than being consigned to the sphere of unthinkable instruments of war.
All this gives alarming credibility to scenarios painted by intelligence advisers that a war could rapidly escalate to the point where nuclear weapons might become the only real option left to the Pakistani leadership if it was faced with overwhelming military force from an Indian army at the gates of Islamabad. These have surfaced in media briefings and have clearly influenced decisions by both governments advising their nationals to leave both countries.
Turning the developing confrontation around has therefore become the most urgent priority for international diplomacy. Yesterday's developments give a glimmer of hope that Pakistan and India are willing to respond to such pressure. General Musharraf's undertaking to Mr Armitage will be tested further when the US Defence Secretary, Mr Donald Rumsfeld, visits him. The Indian government has identified concrete gestures it would take if Pakistan demonstrates a willingness to stop infiltration. The next few days will be crucial in heading off a war that could so easily escalate into nuclear confrontation.