Voting in the Indian general election begins this day week and the electorate in the world's largest democracy has never witnessed, in the country's 50 years of independence, such a fractured political scenario. The outgoing government is a coalition of 13 parties and the new parliament is expected to have representatives from at least 30 parties. No one party, realistically, can expect to win an overall majority. Alliances will need to be established. The discussions have started already.
The Hindu nationalist Bharatiya Janata Party (BJP), which was the largest party in the outgoing parliament with 162 seats, is likely to increase its representation significantly. But even counting on new allegiances it has built, the most it can hope for is 240 whereas 273 is needed for an overall majority. However, the BJP is gambling on winning over defectors in the new parliament and its manifesto's moderation may just deliver them in sufficient numbers.
The BJP has the xenophobic and nationalist Hindu vote sewn up, now it needs to appeal elsewhere. The trick is not to disillusion the core vote and that will prove difficult. Religion is a minefield, especially with the BJP's determination to introduce a uniform civil code. India's Muslims have long feared that a BJP uniform code would undermine Muslim cultural rights and values. But the manifesto says that the code should be based on the progressive practices of all traditions; a conciliatory gesture which will lose the BJP some Hindu votes but perhaps gain a greater number of Muslim votes.
The manifesto's moderation even extends to dropping completely some elementary aspirations. The BJP is unequivocally pro-nuclear weapons. Its 1996 manifesto said that, in government, it would produce and deploy the short-range Prithvi missile. The new manifesto doesn't mention the Prithvi. The BJP would like to test nuclear weapons but to do so would cut off United States aid at a stroke and US banks would be forbidden to lend to Indian companies. So the new manifesto says nothing about nuclear tests. Neither does the manifesto demand that foreign investment be "locked in" as was the party's policy. Investors demand liquidity and no liquidity would mean little investment. All this from a party which got to where it is by lambasting foreign multinationals and trumpeting an "Indians First" policy.
The BJP's main rival for votes (and alliances to make an overall majority) is the Congress Party. It has benefited greatly from the decision by the widelyrespected Sonia Gandhi, widow of Rajiv Gandhi, to take to the hustings. And she has not been slow to speak out. Despite the BJP's something-for-everyone manifesto, she has criticised the party for being hellbent on getting power and determined to divide the country along communal and regional lines.
Congress, up to a month ago, was on its knees and the BJP may be right when it says that Mrs Gandhi is the last weapon in the Congress armoury. But, tired as many voters are of Congress, there are many too who would be reluctant to vote the BJP into power, especially if there was a chance that Mrs Gandhi might lead the alternative government. She may indeed be Congress's last weapon but she might yet prove decisive.