Political analyst Sean Donnelly offers an area-by-area guide to the possible effects of constituency boundary changes at the next general election
Eight constituencies are set to gain or lose a seat as a result of the boundary changes recommended by the independent Constituency Commission.
Despite the initial reaction of some individuals, the overall effect of the proposals will not be significant for any party.
Fianna Fáil is likely to lose seats in Cork North Central and Sligo-North Leitrim, but these should be offset by gains in Kildare North and Dublin Mid West.
The changes do not offer much opportunity for Fine Gael, which will do well to hold on to its present seats in the eight constituencies under scrutiny.
The Labour Party would be hoping to take advantage of the extra seat in Dublin Mid West, but this is offset by an erosion of its ambitions of regaining former seats in Dublin North Central (Derek McDowell), Sligo-North Leitrim (Declan Bree) and Meath.
The PDs will not be too unhappy with the deliberations of the commission, with Kildare North presenting a better opportunity than before, and Mae Sexton's cause not been unduly weakened by a revival of the Longford-Westmeath constituency.
Sinn Féin will be disappointed at the revisions, with its chances suffering a setback in Meath and Sligo-North Leitrim.
The Greens will be happy, as none of their present seats has been affected adversely, with Paul Gogarty's chances being improved considerably in Dublin Mid West.
Independent Finian McGrath was incensed by the loss of a seat in Dublin North Central, but despite the increased difficulty he has at least two years to ensure he survives. Marian Harkin, the only other Independent affected by the changes, is also likely to survive despite her constituency losing a seat.
Below is a constituency-by-constituency guide to the possible political impact of the changes proposed. In short, the publication of the commission's report was not a bad day for the Government parties and a possible omen for the future.
Cork North Central
Reduced from a five- to a four-seater.
The present breakdown of the seats is three Fianna Fáil, one Fine Gael and one Labour.
Fianna Fáil did extremely well to win three out of five seats in the last two general elections, but is unlikely to win three out of four. Fianna Fáil had 2.5 quotas in 2002, and this would translate to just 2.1 quotas in a four-seater, and it would be very difficult to convert this into three seats.
The three FF seats are held by Noel O'Flynn who topped the poll, Billy Kelleher and Dan Wallace, both of whom were elected without reaching the quota. Wallace looks the most vulnerable and may decide to retire at this stage, having been first elected in November 1982. He would have been hoping to hand over the seat to his son, Damien, a former lord mayor of Cork, but this is now highly unlikely.
Dublin Mid West
This was the single new constituency created for the 2002 general election, and already it has undergone major adjustment with the number of seats increased from three to four.
This increase will come as good news for two of the present TDs, Tánaiste Mary Harney and the Greens' Paul Gogarty. As the smaller parties usually struggle in three-seaters, the increase to a four-seater should ensure their return along with Fianna Fáil's John Curran. But what of the destination of the extra seat? This looks like coming down to a battle between Senator Johanna Tuffy of the Labour Party and the second Fianna Fáil candidate, Des Kelly.
If Fianna Fáil achieves the same share of the vote as in 2002 this will convert to 1.6 quotas in a four-seater. Likewise, the Labour Party would have half a quota. It is, therefore, finally balanced and will be down to the performance of the relative parties on the day, with Labour probably the favourite at this stage.
Dublin North Central
Number of seats reduced from four to three.
This constituency has suffered a similar fate to two other north Dublin constituencies at the previous boundary review when both Dublin North East and Dublin North West were reduced from four to three. Following the 1998 boundary changes, commentators predicted that Fianna Fáil would not hold on to its two seats in each of these two new three-seaters, but that is exactly what happened in 2002.
A similar scenario is emerging in North Central where Fianna Fáil was in the running for a remarkable three out of four at the last general election, with Deirdre Heney eventually losing out to the Independent Finian McGrath.
Thus the party is unlikely to go from nearly three seats to just one, especially with two strong candidates like Sean Haughey and Minister of State Ivor Callely. Following this latest change, Fianna Fáil would still have two quotas and is well placed to repeat the North West and North East achievements.So who is going to lose? The other two seats are held by Richard Bruton, deputy leader of Fine Gael, and newly elected Finian McGrath.
Fine Gael had a very poor election in 2002, but Dublin in particular was a disaster, with seats reduced from 12 to just three. Bruton was the only Fine Gael candidate to win in Dublin outside of a five-seater, and he had a bit of a struggle along the way. Therefore, unless there is a major recovery in the party's fortunes, Bruton would struggle even more in a three-seater where his 2002 vote would translate to 0.7 of a quota.
But if Bruton faces some anxiety, McGrath's is even greater, with his 2002 share of the vote converting to just 0.4 of a quota, a long way from the finishing line. McGrath has time on his side and as an outgoing TD will be much better known and would be expected to increase his vote substantially.
But will it be enough, or will the better known Bruton, with a resurgent Fine Gael performance, carry the day? Hard to call at this stage, but this latest change makes it much more difficult for former Labour deputy and present senator Derek McDowell to regain his seat.
Kildare North
The huge increase in population around the commuter areas of Dublin means that Kildare North is under-represented, and is now increased from three to four seats.
This should come as good news for the sitting TDs, Charlie McCreevy (FF), Emmet Stagg (Labour) and Bernard Durkan (FG), as they should all comfortably retain their seats. Fianna Fáil had failed to win a second seat here at the last general election by a mere 135 votes. Thus with 2.2 quotas in the new four-seater, the Minister for Finance must be odds-on to go one better than 2002 and bring in his running mate, Paul Kelly.
The only other contender in 2002 was Kate Walsh (PD), and if she were to repeat her previous performance it would give her 0.6 of a quota and an outside chance. Indeed, she should be able to improve on that support following a term in the Seanad.
Meath
Similar to Kildare North, the increased population has necessitated an extra seat, with Meath now divided into two three-seaters, Meath East and Meath West, which includes part of the former constituency of Westmeath.
At present, Fianna Fáil has three seats and Fine Gael two. They should retain these seats in the new constituencies, so the extra seat is up for grabs. John Bruton (Dunboyne) and Mary Wallace (Ratoath) are likely to go to Meath East, with Noel Dempsey (Trim), Damien English (Navan) and Johnny Brady (Kells) moving to Meath West. Thus the extra seat would come from Meath East.
If this constituency had been increased to a six-seater, Joe Reilly of Sinn Féin would be favourite to take the extra seat as, following his good 2002 performance, he would have 0.7 of a quota, with FF on 3.1 and FG with 1.9.
However, the situation is much less favourable in a three-seater, especially if the Sinn Féin man runs in Meath West where he will be up against three sitting deputies. However, with Sinn Féin likely to do well in the next general election, Reilly could repeat Martin Ferris's 2002 achievement in the three-seater Kerry North.
Labour last won a seat here in 1992, but Brian Fitzgerald subsequently departed from the party following the amalgamation with Democratic Left and ran as an Independent in 2002.
Labour did poorly in Meath at the last general election, and is now being squeezed by Sinn Féin, which has emerged as the main threat to the two major parties.
One final scenario to consider is the possibility of poll topper and Minister for Education Noel Dempsey moving to Meath East, with Westmeath deputy Donie Cassidy moving with his Castlepollard base to Meath West. That would be a rather brave move by both TDs, but it is on such actions that governments can be decided, and delivering four out of six would not do any harm to Dempsey's leadership ambitions.
Sligo-Leitrim
Constituency changed to Sligo-North Leitrim and reduced from four to three seats.
The commission has decided to divide the least populous county in half, and part of Leitrim is retained with Sligo, with south Leitrim being joined with Roscommon in a new four-seater.
The seats at present are held by Independent Marian Harkin, Jimmy Devins (FF), John Perry (FG) and John Ellis (FF).
With just 1.6 quotas in the revised constituency of Sligo-North Leitrim, Fianna Fáil will be under pressure to retain its two seats, with Ellis the one most vulnerable. But they also said that prior to the last election.
Anyway, Ellis, the only Leitrim deputy in the present Dáil, is likely to move to the new constituency of Roscommon-South Leitrim.
The position of Harkin is not completely clear as she still has not ruled herself out of running for Europe and maybe going one better than 1999 when she was beaten by Dana Rosemary Scallon for the final seat.
If she were to be successful, and then opted out of the next general election, the destination of the third seat would be up for grabs with Sinn Féin's Sean MacManus back in the frame along with FF.
But as it stands at the moment a probable loss for Fianna Fáil.
Longford-Roscommon and Westmeath
Changed to Roscommon-South Leitrim with Longford being reunited with Westmeath in new constituency of Longford-Westmeath.
Longford Roscommon returned Peter Kelly (FF) and Mae Sexton (PD) from Longford, and Denis Naughten (FG) and Michael Finneran (FF) from Roscommon.
With all four deputies likely to stay with their home counties, the new three-seater Roscommon-South Leitrim is likely to return Naughten and Finneran, with the third seat up for grabs and likely to be contested by the Leitrim-based Ellis.
The two Longford deputies are likely to move to Longford Westmeath, where they will be joined by Willie Penrose (Lab), Donie Cassidy (FF) and Paul McGrath, and five into four just will not go so one has to lose out. Fianna Fáil is assured of one seat as is Penrose, but the others are difficult to call.
Longford would be hoping to have equal representation in the new two-county constituency which would be good news for the two outgoing deputies and that would leave either Cassidy or McGrath in trouble.
So again it will come down to the overall performance of the parties, and under a resurgent Fine Gael Paul McGrath would survive.
Sean Donnelly is a political analyst and author of several books on Irish elections