Cowen changes direction with eye on general election

Brian Cowen has turned Fianna Fáil back to wards its pragmatic roots, writes Mark Brennock , Chief Political Correspondent.

Brian Cowen has turned Fianna Fáil back to wards its pragmatic roots, writes Mark Brennock, Chief Political Correspondent.

The voters have been listened to. Yesterday's was just one Budget, but Brian Cowen emphasised that it was just his "first instalment". If the later instalments continue the same plot line the Government will have executed a remarkable change of direction.

This Budget may, therefore, be a turning point in the struggle for Fianna Fáil's soul between Galway Tent Man and Inchydoney Man.

Galway Tent Man can often be seen at the Fianna Fáil tent at the Galway races.

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He believes the Government's role should be confined to making the State safe for business while providing useful shelters where he can protect his wealth from tax.

Inchydoney Man was at the party's autumn meeting in the west Cork resort and took to heart the Rev Seán Healy's pleadings for a better deal for the State's less well off and a fairer society.

Yesterday was Inchydoney man's best day out since Fianna Fáil came to power in 1997.

Each year since 1997, Mr McCreevy's tax changes meant that the more you earned, the more you got from the budget in monetary terms.

However, Mr Cowen's changes have given the lowest paid the most money, and the highest paid the least.

He also gave notice of what may be a more symbolically important development: the trimming back of some of the various property based and other legal tax wheezes that many high earners use to pay little tax - in some cases none at all.

The "full review" of these tax reliefs ordered yesterday could be just a kick for touch. But Mr Cowen's stated intention "to include appropriate follow-up measures in next year's budget", suggests that action will follow, as does the information from PD sources last night that they also pushed for this review.

The Opposition, and Labour in particular, has repeatedly criticised the Government over the unfairness of the fact that these schemes are available to the very well off. The Coalition may be on course to neutralise this issue.

Then there is the 11 per cent increase in spending on disability services and the promise of more such increases in subsequent years. Even Opposition politicians last night acknowledged the value of the package which will fund training, special needs education, residential and respite places, home support and community-based mental health facilities.

Social welfare increases are above inflation again, as usual. Child benefit is up, but by less than promised on a number of occasions in recent years.

Measures have been taken to reduce the effect of nine of the so-called "savage 16" social welfare cuts announced last year including reduced eligibility for rent allowance, lone parent allowance for people returning to work and creche supplement.

In short the party has listened to Inchydoney Man. It may not be certain that he is morally superior to Galway Tent Man, but it believes that he is the guy whose outlook has the best chance of winning the next general election.

The Progressive Democrats are players in this too. Yesterday they were keen to emphasise that they were enthusiastic about the review of the various tax reliefs.

They hailed the tax cuts, the social welfare increases and disability funding. The Budget was "balanced and fair".

Of course it wasn't all about being nice to the low earners and the marginalised. The cut in stamp duty for first time buyers of the average priced €300,000 second hand house will benefit purchasers by €11,250.

This will do nothing for the poor but will be popular among young urban working voters - a traditionally "floating" section of the electorate carefully courted by all parties.

He has given the Irish Farmers' Association the bulk of what it was looking for, giving and improving various tax reliefs to help young farmers starting off, to encourage farm consolidation and to promote anti-pollution measures.

Perhaps the easiest aspect of the tax changes to understand is that nobody on the minimum wage will be liable to pay any tax or PRSI from January 1st. But, of course, a tranche of these people may be back again when the minimum wage goes up next year.

And the Budget's biggest failure in relation to tax is the increase, once again, of the number of taxpayers paying tax at the top tax rate. For a Government which prides itself on its tax cutting legacy more than anything, this is a continuation of a trend that has gone in the wrong direction for three years now.

Of course there is an excuse: this year Mr Cowen has devoted €398 million to increasing tax credits - which benefits all taxpayers including the lowest paid.

Some €233 million has gone to broadening the standard rate band - which only benefits those already paying tax on the higher rate.

So, for example, as a result of the Budget, a married couple with a single low income of €20,000 and two children gains €1,568 or 6.4 per cent of their income.

A married couple with a single high income of €120,000 and two children gains €820 or just 1 per cent of their income. These figures apply when the increases in child benefit and family income supplement (FIS) are taken into account (and presume those entitled to FIS are actually claiming it).

Mr Cowen has, therefore, given more, in percentage and monetary terms, to the lowest paid.

He may have two more budgets in which to take people out of the top tax rate. He also has explaining to do in relation to the latest overseas development aid commitment, which seems to be well on the way to being breached.

The Government has recently promised annual monetary increases in overseas aid that it says will bring Ireland's contribution to helping the world's poorest to 0.7 per cent of GNP by 2007.

However , Mr Oisín Coghlan of Christian Aid pointed out yesterday that the Government's own projected growth figures suggest these monetary increases will bring that percentage to just 0.43 per cent in that year.

So before concluding that Inchydoney man has won, we must note again that this is just one budget. It is spreading the benefits of just one year's incremental growth in Exchequer revenue.

The State's overall tax regime remains largely unchanged. It has merely been tweaked modestly in the opposite direction to that chosen for the past seven years. But that tweaking implies a different choice than the ones taken over the past seven years in relation to how to deal with the extraordinary wealth in the country and income coming into the Exchequer.

Now Mr Cowen may have two more budgets yet in which to consolidate the change of direction signalled yesterday. Charlie McCreevy used to suggest his budgets were not so much one-off events, but steps towards a changed society - chapters in a book.

Was it an accident that Mr Cowen, revealing the change of direction yesterday, used similar language? "There is more to come in the next two budgets to be presented to this House," he said. "This Budget is my first instalment."