ANALYSIS:Climate change policy, the economic crisis and Iran are just some of the issues Taoiseach must face in Brussels, writes ARTHUR BEESLEY
HAVING UNLEASHED an austerity Budget of unparalleled severity, Brian Cowen travels to Brussels today for the final EU summit of the year. The occasion may well provide respite for the Taoiseach from the inevitable backlash against his fiscal measures, but nothing on the EU agenda lends itself to cosy compromise or a quick political fix.
Although the union’s negotiation tactics at the Copenhagen climate change summit may well dominate the proceedings, EU leaders will also discuss the economic crisis and Iran’s nuclear programme. This will be the last such meeting to be chaired by a sitting prime minister – Fredrik Reinfeldt of Sweden, holder of the union’s rotating presidency – as European Council president Herman Van Rompuy takes command of EU summitry in the new year.
With world leaders preparing to descend on Copenhagen late next week for the culmination of the UN talks, EU leaders have two main environmental issues to resolve tonight. These concern emission-reduction targets and the union’s fiscal commitment to “fast start” climate-change financing in the next three years.
Having committed to a 20 per cent cut in emissions from the 1990 level by 2020, the EU has a conditional offer on the table to increase the reduction target to 30 per cent in the same period if other major economic powers such as the US and China follow suit with “comparable” promises.
Even at this relatively early stage in the Copenhagen talks, EU leaders will assess tonight whether those conditions have been met. On one side stand the Danes, British and Swedes, who are pushing for the adoption of the new target. While Irish sources say Cowen would happily back them if other global powers step forward, Polish resistance to the adoption of the 30 per cent target is strong and may yet scupper it.
In the event that EU leaders agree at the summit to increase their target in light of promises already in train, it would be open to them for tactical reason not to make that public until a later moment in the talks. Good intentions notwithstanding, however, EU states have long been divided over the extent and scope of their exposure to climate aid.
On fast-start financing, designed to set in motion climate change compensation for the developing world next year, Reinfeldt is pushing for agreement tonight on an aggregate figure for the EU’s contribution to the scheme in the 2010-2012 period.
Although the European Commission estimates that the global community at large should contribute between €5 billion and €7 billion per year in this period, agreement on the EU contribution has proved elusive thus far. The range mooted by the commission – between €500 million and €2.1 billion, and possibly more – left plenty of latitude.
Reinfeldt is not seeking to pin down the exact contributions from member states to this voluntary scheme. Conscious, however, of the EU’s prized image as a world leader in the battle against climate change, the Swedish premier is keen to secure significant commitments from EU powers.
Cowen hasn’t publicly quantified the payments that Dublin would make, but he has promised that Ireland will pay its “fair share” and the annual contribution would be in tens of millions. In addition, Government policy suggests Irish exposure would not be diverted from its existing development aid budget.
EUROPE’S ECONOMIC troubles continue to vex EU leaders. With more than half of all member states now in breach of the union’s budget deficit guidelines, the nascent recovery of the wider EU economy will provide only limited cheer around the summit table.
While economic freefall is at an end and talk has turned to the development of strategies to withdraw extraordinary fiscal stimuli around the union, the turnaround is far from secure and EU economies remain prone to shock.
Still, Cowen can at least take some succour from support at the highest levels of the EU hierarchy for his government’s swingeing Budget measures.
When chiding Greece last Monday for the perilous position of its public finances, European Central Bank chief Jean-Claude Trichet noted “very, very tough decisions” taken in Dublin and urged Athens to follow that path with “courageous” fiscal manoeuvres.
With international markets taking fright at the Greek position and its possible consequences for the euro zone at large, it seems inevitable that EU leaders will take stock of the situation.
They will also try to plot a route map for the adoption early next year of a new 10-year plan to secure the union’s economic expansion, a project that will be managed by Spain as incoming holder of the EU presidency.
Also on the table is final sign-off on a new pan-European system of financial regulation and the formal adoption of a five-year programme of justice legislation, topics on which EU ministers have already resolved their differences.
Looking beyond Europe’s borders, the leaders are likely to welcome US moves to intensify the military campaign in Afghanistan while reiterating their commitment to EU development projects in the war-torn country. They are also likely to impose a seven-week deadline on Iran to return to the talks table over its nuclear programme or face stiffer sanctions.
A draft statement from the EU leaders, approved two days ago by foreign ministers, decries Iran’s “persistent failure to meet its international obligations”. Citing the Iranian government’s apparent lack of interest in pursuing negotiations, it says a clear response is now required “including through appropriate measures”.
Less than a fortnight after the enactment of the Lisbon Treaty, EU leaders are also expected to iron out some institutional questions outstanding since the new regime came into force. For example, van Rompuy will set out over dinner tonight how he proposes to manage his work as president of the EU leaders.
Although Cowen may not lie awake at night wondering about that, it seems pretty certain that the Budget brickbats will still be flying when he returns to Dublin tomorrow and to Offaly at the weekend.
Arthur Beesley is Europe Correspondent