Inside Politics:The outbreak of auction politics three months before election day has left Fianna Fáil with a dilemma. Should it join the fray, with an attractive giveaway package of its own, or stand aloof, presenting itself as the responsible party of power above the grubby business of wooing the voters with goodies?, writes Stephen Collins.
The party strategists seem to be in a quandary about which option to take. Going by his public statements the Minister for Finance, Brian Cowen, wants to play the "responsible government" card but some of his Ministerial colleagues feel it would be madness to take that course and allow the initiative to slip to other parties.
There is still plenty of time for Fianna Fáil to decide on the best approach. Ministers can assess how the pledges made by other parties are going down with the public and weigh up their own options in the light of that. While they will talk about behaving in the national interest, what they desperately want is a winning formula
There is no disguising the fact that Pat Rabbitte's kick for the finishing line, with more than a lap to go, caught both Government parties completely by surprise. Although stunned by Labour's proposal to cut the basic rate of tax to 18 per cent, Fianna Fáil TDs couldn't disguise their admiration for Rabbitte's bold stroke.
By contrast Michael McDowell and the Progressive Democrats were positively indignant that Labour, of all parties, had suddenly seized the tax-cutting agenda in an effort to broaden its appeal.
The Tánaiste retaliated almost immediately with his plan for a €100 a week increase in the old-age pension. He followed that up last weekend with his tax plans, which involve cutting the top rate and the standard rate as well as significantly widening the bands. A new SSIA pension scheme and a doubling of the early childcare allowance was thrown in for good measure.
The cost of the PD plan comes out at a whopping €5.5 billion. By contrast Labour's tax commitment will cost just over €1 billion and its five pledges including extra hospital beds comes to another €1 billion odd. The total Labour package is now running at a relatively modest €2.05 billion but the party still has more announcements up its sleeve and the full election manifesto can be expected to cost considerably more.
Whatever it does, though, Labour can hardly be accused of being profligate in the light of the PD plan. McDowell defended the €5.5 billion cost on the basis that the exchequer would be running surpluses of that order if nothing was done, and Rabbitte made a similar case at his conference, pointing to the fact that last year's tax revenues were €4 billion higher than budgeted.
Fine Gael has not only signed on for the Labour tax cut, the party is positively ecstatic that its coalition partner is committed to reducing tax. Fine Gael will have a range of spending plans of its own and they can be expected to dovetail with Labour. The Fine Gael ardfheis at the end of March will provide Enda Kenny with an opportunity to put some of his commitments on the line.
That raises the question of what Fianna Fáil will do. By announcing such a whopping package, the PDs may have devalued the "responsible government, no auction politics" card. If a senior member of the Government like McDowell can argue that there is €5.5 billion to give away over the next five years, Cowen will have difficulty making the argument that the exchequer should hold on to the money.
It appears that Fianna Fáil had already decided to offer the €100 a week increase in the old-age pension but the PDs got in with their announcement first. Cowen has committed the party to reducing the top rate of tax to 40 per cent next year but decisions will now have to be made about whether to match the PDs on a top rate of 38 per cent or, more importantly, Labour on the lower rate of 18 per cent.
Fianna Fáil strategy should be clear by the time ardfheis rolls around on the weekend after St Patrick's Day. The party will undoubtedly run the various options through focus groups over the next few weeks, and analyse its own privately commissioned opinion polls, before it makes a final decision on what should go into the election manifesto.
Fianna Fáil was way ahead of the other parties in its use of focus groups in advance of the 2002 election and calibrated its message accordingly. It is still spending more on focus group research than anybody else, although the other parties are catching up in their use of the techniques.
However, focus groups can only reveal how the voters are feeling at a particular point in time. They cannot predict with accuracy how they will respond to unexpected events.
The public reaction to the statutory rape case last summer was a case in point where the Government was taken aback by the reaction of the public. The controversy over the payments to Bertie Ahern in the autumn was the reverse, with the Opposition parties taking a hit they never saw coming.
The Opposition blew it last autumn because they were afraid to take the risk of being bold. They have had time to regroup, but to be in with a real chance they will have to demonstrate the ability to lead public opinion and not to follow it. Ahern and Fianna Fáil have the invaluable asset of long experience in power but they too have to make a judgment about what the electorate is really looking for in the months ahead. It will be the ultimate test of Ahern's leadership.