The crime detection rate is an unsatisfactory performance indicator for theGarda, maintains Ian O'Donnell
The first annual report of An Garda Síochána was published in 1947. It portrayed a society largely free from crime. A dozen rapes and three murders were recorded.
There were 44 cases of arson and around 200 burglaries. In addition, there were 76 incidents of sacrilege (including theft from donation boxes) and 1,592 bicycle thefts.
How things have changed. The Garda report for 2001, published this week, shows a country where serious crime has become commonplace. On average, there was one murder each week last year, the highest number ever recorded. Rape and sexual assault reached unprecedented levels. There were over 23,000 burglaries and 1,400 cases of arson.
There is little comfort to be gained from a substantial reduction in the number of bicycle thefts (down to 321) and the disappearance of sacrilege.
The interpretation of crime statistics is always fraught with difficulty. Not all offences are reported to the Garda or recorded by them. Even when complaints are officially recorded, the tally is reduced by what are known as "counting rules".
One rule specifies that a continuous series of offences against the same injured party involving the same offender counts as one offence. In other words a child who is repeatedly raped by her father will count, for the purposes of the Garda statistics, as a single incident of rape.
Another rule states that where two or more criminal offences are disclosed in a single episode, only the most serious one is counted.
Making sense of the figures is further complicated because a new method of offence categorisation was introduced in 2000, because of the Garda PULSE computer system.
However, it is possible to compare 2001 directly with 2000. Over this period there were increases across all 10 categories of "headline" crime. These include the most serious offences such as homicide, assault, robbery and larceny.
Among the numerous categories of "non-headline" crime there were increases in possession of knives, disorderly conduct and threatening or abusive behaviour. The number of traffic offences, particularly speeding, fell steeply. The Garda Commissioner has stated that between 1996 and 2000 Ireland experienced a "world-best drop" of 27 per cent in the crime rate. This is based on the number of headline crimes only. Including non-headline offences in this calculation would yield the much less impressive figure of 6 per cent.
Furthermore, it must not be forgotten that the overall decline in recent years - whatever its magnitude - concealed a rise in violence against the person. There can be little doubt that international comparisons are of most value when they are offence-specific.
Perhaps more interesting than the fluctuation in crime levels is the substantial drop in the proportion of cases that lead to criminal proceedings.
In 1947, proceedings were initiated in over half of all recorded indictable crimes. For offences against the person the rate was much higher, with proceedings taken in nine out of 10 murders and sexual offences. By last year the overall rate had halved to 28 per cent, while proceedings were taken in just one third of sexual offences and half of all murders.
This pattern is difficult to understand. It may be that a more selective approach was taken in the past to the recording of complaints, with those unlikely to be pursued not making it as far as the official record. Perhaps there are ever-growing delays in initiating proceedings, or perpetrators cannot be identified, or the Garda decide not to charge, or a referral is made to the juvenile liaison scheme, or the DPP decides not to prosecute.
Unfortunately the traditional lack of explanatory text in the Garda annual report makes it impossible to ascertain the relative importance of these factors and how they may have changed over time.
An evaluation of the Garda Síochána Policing Plan was published as part of the annual report. This holds out the detection rate as one of the indicators against which Garda performance is to be evaluated.
Under Interpol guidelines, a case is considered solved if the police are satisfied they have identified the culprit because of the weight of the evidence against him, even if no action is taken. For this reason the detection rate is always significantly higher than the number of proceedings commenced.
The detection rate is almost twice as high in Ireland as in the US and the UK. The clear implication is that An Garda Síochána is more effective than its counterparts in other jurisdictions. There is a caveat to enter here. This is that the detection rate of 41 per cent is based on headline crimes only. The rate for the non-headline offence of criminal damage is 30 per cent. For unauthorised taking of a motor vehicle (also non-headline), the rate is 11 per cent. In other words, the overall rate would fall if these offences were included.
It would rise if it included possession of drugs, another non-headline category, which by definition has a 100 per cent detection rate.
This variability makes the detection rate an unsatisfactory performance indicator. The previous minister for justice, equality and law reform, Mr O'Donoghue, was quick to relate the fall in crime to the expansion of the prison population. As crime begins to rise, and the prison population shows no sign of shrinking, the validity of this connection must be called into question.
The current Minister, Mr McDowell, has undertaken to establish an expert group to review the crime statistics. This is a welcome development. The group has an important role in clarifying the extent to which the Garda report can be redesigned as a tool for sound public education and policy formulation.