The breakup of Zaire, the colossal country that straddles central Africa, looks nearer after several months of fighting between President Mobutu's forces and the rebels led by Mr Laurent Kabila. The fighting has gone decisively in the rebels' favour, despite intensive efforts to bolster the regime's defences with mercenaries, military aid and advice from African and other governments and now air attacks on rebel held towns. If the country is to be prevented from disintegrating, which could be highly destabilising for the region, an agreement will have to be reached between Mr Kabila and the Kinshasa based opposition. That would require the departure of President Mobuto from office.
There are large strategic issues at stake in this conflict. Zaire is a country rich in mineral and agricultural wealth. But it has been stripped of many assets during Mr Mobuto's rule, much of them channelled to his own coffers and others benefitting western companies in states that gave him aid during the Cold War. Zaire has been within the French sphere of African influence. Observers detect a continuing conflict between Francophone and Anglo phone states in the arguments over its future, both in Africa and in the wider international setting.
This may be seen in the widespread suspicions that Rwanda and Uganda have been aiding the rebels and that neighbouring French speaking states have been helping the Mobuto regime. There has been tension between the United States and France over the issue as well, with the US anxious to bolster Uganda, Rwanda, Ethiopia and Eritrea as a bulwark against Islamic fundamentalism in Sudan, while the French remain determined to maintain their political, economic and cultural influence.
In the jockeying for position, the fate of hundreds of thousands of refugees from the genocide and war in Rwanda has been a continuing theme. After many of them returned to Rwanda last year, the international force agreed by the Security Council under Canadian leadership was stood down. It was considered unnecessary, having been strenuously opposed by the US and Britain, while the French argued that it was still needed. This outcome was unsatisfactory, leaving it unclear whether all the refugees had returned from eastern Zaire or whether many remained in the deep forest areas prevented from returning by extremist militias. It is reliably reported that they did remain and that they are now under threat from Mr Kabila's forces, as are strategic towns such as Kisingani. Such are the cynical ways of real politik as played out in contemporary Africa.
The combination of Zaire's uncertain future and the unresolved conflicts in Rwanda and Burundi reinforce the pressing need for African and UN diplomacy to seek an overall settlement in the region. This has been given a good start by the Security Council's endorsement of the five point plan drawn up by Mr Muhammad Sahnoun, the UN's chief negotiating coordinator for the Great Lakes region, and now by the parallel negotiations initiated by President Mandela of South Africa. The intensification of Zaire's crisis will put these formidable talents to the test in coming weeks. The forthcoming visit of the President, Mrs Robinson, to Rwanda will now help to focus attention on the crisis.