Croke Park and leaders

DESPITE A storming performance in his outings last week, only 26 per cent of the electorate want Taoiseach Brian Cowen to lead…

DESPITE A storming performance in his outings last week, only 26 per cent of the electorate want Taoiseach Brian Cowen to lead Fianna Fáil into the general election. Some two-thirds of voters do not want him to do so.

It is interesting, however, that 58 per cent of Fianna Fáil voters want him to remain as Taoiseach during the campaign while massive majorities in all other parties are against this proposition now apparently sanctioned, in their own survival interests, by Fianna Fáil supporters.

But these results from the second day of The Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI opinion poll should not cause any great surprise. It has become clear in recent weeks that the likely successors want Mr Cowen in situ to take the expected drubbing for Fianna Fáil rather than starting off their leadership with a historically low election result and a decimated parliamentary party.

What is interesting in today’s findings is that Micheál Martin has surpassed Brian Lenihan as the favourite to succeed Mr Cowen. This compares with a similar question in September’s Irish Times/Ipsos MRBI poll when Brian Lenihan took the lead.

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In the meantime, of course, Dermot Ahern has decided that he will retire from politics at the next general election.

Though the Labour Party has fallen behind Fine Gael in this poll, some 43 per cent would like to see Eamon Gilmore as taoiseach while 28 per cent would prefer Enda Kenny. But 18 per cent would cite neither and 12 per cent don’t know.

Another interesting part of today’s poll, however, is the greater number of respondents in all parties who believe the Croke Park agreement, which deals with pay and productivity within the public service, should be abandoned. It generates a negative response within all the political parties, with majorities of more than two to one in Fine Gael and Sinn Féin.

The support for the abandonment of the Croke Park deal is only marginally greater among Labour Party supporters (45 per cent) than Fianna Fáil supporters (42 per cent). Even among public service employees only a small majority favour its survival. If the arrangement is to endure, public servants and their trade unions will have to take the initiative and deliver on new work practices and cost-saving measures. Unless measurable savings are delivered within a matter of months, an incoming government will be forced into other actions.