The appalling escalation of violence between Israeli troops and Palestinian guerrilla forces in recent days reminds the world that this low intensity war could escalate into a more dangerous conflict
At least 39 people have been killed in 48 hours, most of them in Israeli retaliatory strikes following two Palestinian attacks on Israeli troops in which 10 of them died. International pressure must be applied to put an overlapping political and security dialogue in place.
There are signs that the conflict has reached a decisive point between military escalation and political engagement. The Israeli prime minister, Mr Ariel Sharon, is being pushed by hardline coalition ministers to declare open war on the Palestinian Authority with the aim of destroying it, if necessary by a full reocccupation of towns in the West Bank and Gaza. That would breach the limits laid down by Mr George Bush, who told Mr Sharon last week these objectives are unacceptable to the US - reportedly in the context of its military planning for an attack on Iraq.
Israeli media speculate that Palestinian strategy is now aimed politically at breaking up the Israeli coalition by forcing the Labour Party to leave it in protest against Mr Sharon's escalation. Militarily the attacks on Israel have become more effective, demonstrating better training, surveillance and intelligence and concentrating on troops and settlers, not civilians. Within Israel there are new voices saying the Sharon strategy has gone wrong and cannot achieve its objectives.
Into this flux Crown Prince Abdullah of Saudi Arabia has introduced the idea that his state would normalise relations with Israel if it withdraws to its 1967 borders - a proposal that has been welcomed by the Labour foreign minister, Mr Shimon Peres. All this demonstrates that within such a dangerous and unstable set of circumstances there is a possibility of constructive movement. It bears out the analysis of European foreign ministers, and repeated by Mr Brian Cowen, the Minister for Foreign Affairs, that security and political steps must be pursued in parallel.
However difficult it is to do that, the European Union has a crucial role to play, because of its substantial funding of the Palestinian Authority, its greater independence from the Israelis and its own interests in Middle East peace and stability. This requires the EU to have a much more active engagement. The Austrian foreign minister, Mrs Benita Ferrero-Waldners, said in Dublin yesterday that a ceasefire would allow the resumption of talks based on the agendas developed at Camp David and Taba last year. An urgent effort must be made to seek that out, in combination with the Bush administration if possible, without it if necessary.