It is hard to beat a row between Cuba and the United States for furious rhetoric and escalating demands, especially in an election year. The latest example revolves around the rights and wrongs of Cuba shooting down an unarmed Cessna plane last week end. President Clinton moved exceedingly fast to denounce it as a violation of international law and to orchestrate diplomatic protests, including a strong statement in criticism of the action by the UN Security Council. For its part Cuba argues strenuously that this was a violation of its sovereign air space and that the group concerned had received ample warning of retaliatory action.
The affair, serious enough in itself, but hardly deserving of the diplomatic escalation it has received, has been driven by the US presidential election campaign. It is difficult to imagine more provocative acts than the recent airborne leaf letting of the Havana waterfront by such vehement opponents of the Castro regime, and now this weekend's flotilla of protests. However praiseworthy the "Brothers to the Rescue" organisation's work on behalf of refugees has been, following President Clinton's decision last year to turn them back, it is impossible to pass over the skillful timing of this escalation of their activity into the political arena, just as the presidential primaries move seriously into their stride. Florida is a key swing state for both major parties and the Cuban lobby is a critical factor. Mr Clinton has had to pay particular attention to Florida, since it was captured during the 1992 campaign by anti Castro groups.
As a result he has had to move very carefully on Cuba, even though the predominant advice to his administration has been that the development of human, economic and political contacts is the best means of ensuring a peaceful transition beyond the Castro era. The alternative counter revolutionary strategy advocated by the anti Castro groups and the Republican right in Congress is a recipe for regional instability. Mr Clinton is to sign a bill that will tighten the US embargo of Cuba by extending US economic sanctions towards foreign corporations doing business there. It has been sharply criticised by European and other American governments for extending extra territoriality, just as the EU is taking its own steps to develop a political and economic dialogue with Havana.
It takes two to escalate such tension, of course. The Cessnas were cold bloodedly shot down shortly after the Cuban government banned a national conference called in Havana by Concilio Cubano, a coalition of human rights and professional groups that could have inaugurated a national campaign for political reform. Dozens of activists were arrested amid warnings that they could be tried for spreading hostile propaganda and illegal association. This is equally provocative. It should be noted by those who concentrate all their criticisms on the US government for its handling of the Cuban issue. A more balanced approach was taken in a motion passed by the European Parliament, which called on the Cuban government to respect human rights, release political prisoners and hold free elections. Similar points have been made during the initial contacts between EU and Cuban officials, but it is not now expected that the dialogue will make any rapid progress.