Cyprus settlement

Yesterday's decision by Turkey's National Security Council to support a resumption of the stalled talks on a settlement in Cyprus…

Yesterday's decision by Turkey's National Security Council to support a resumption of the stalled talks on a settlement in Cyprus sets the scene for an intensive effort over coming months to bring them to a conclusion.

They were suspended last year largely because of a refusal by the Turkish Cypriot leader, Mr Rauf Denktash, to accept the basis for negotiations laid out by the United Nations Secretary General, Mr Kofi Annan.

Yesterday's announcement in Ankara referred to the Annan plan, and to the need to reach a "speedy conclusion" to the talks; but this was qualified by a reference to "the realities of the island" - political shorthand for equal recognition of both the Turkish Cypriot enclave of northern Cyprus and the internationally recognised Greek Cypriot south. Turkey's overall geopolitical situation has finally caught up with Mr Denktash's intransigence, since a successful outcome is now intimately linked to Turkey's own ambitions to join the European Union.

Intense pressure from Brussels and Washington has encouraged the powerful Turkish military, who dominate the National Security Council, to swing behind the government led by Mr Recep Tayyip Erdogan's reformist Islamic party in pursuit of a settlement in Cyprus. But there is still a grudging attitude towards the Annan plan among senior officers, exemplified in recent remarks by the commander of the Aegean, Gen Hursit Tolan, who spoke of those supporting it as traitors.

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Despite political support from Mr Erdogan and his popularity, the government has done too little to educate Turkish public opinion about the desirability and benefits of a settlement based on the Annan plan.

Mr Annan lost patience last year with the long-drawn- out Turkish resistance to his plan and is unwilling to alter it to appease its hardliners. When he meets Mr Erdogan today in Davos he will make this clear; and the Turkish leader will hear the same message from President Bush next week in Washington, echoing what he has already heard from European leaders in recent days.

There is much for Turkey in the Annan plan. It provides for a loose federation on the island, with substantial autonomy for the north. It would allow recent Turkish settlers remain, along with a reduced Turkish military presence. Above all, a settlement reached before May 1st would allow a united Cyprus join the EU and immensely boost Turkey's chances of joining too.

It is a brief but crucial window of opportunity.