These are dangerous times in Northern Ireland. The governments in Dublin and London are moving towards elections and are therefore less capable of shaping or influencing events. IRA sources insist that they are shooting to kill, not conducting a phoney war, on the anniversary of the London Canary Wharf bombing which ended their ceasefire. And the escalation of sectarian demonstrations in Harryville, in Ballymena, is a fearsome reminder of the summer to come and of the failure to put in place a new means of regulating the marching season.
It is important to put these dangers into their proper political perspective. The opportunity for peaceful settlement of the conflict in Northern Ireland must not be lost sight of during this period of transition. Keeping a firm view on it ought to encourage all concerned to act responsibly, in full awareness of the way in which events can run out of control, much reducing the possibility of a peaceful resolution to the conflict.
A great deal must await the outcome of the British election. Assuming it results in a stable parliamentary majority, there will be much that a new government can do to initiate a fresh round of inclusive talks in co operation with a new Government in Dublin and taking full advantage of President Clinton's commitment to give Northern Ireland high priority in his second administration. This will depend on maximum commitment and determination between the governments and from all the political parties involved in the talks. These are elementary political truths.
It is highly irresponsible for any of those involved to jeopardise the opportunity for a settlement by escalating tension in coming months. It must raise fundamental questions about whether they are really committed to a peaceful settlement or whether they want to exploit the transitional period in order to wreck the possibility. The continuing IRA campaign of violence must be utterly condemned in both moral and political terms from this perspective, irrespective of whether it is being run deliberately in such a way as to minimise loss of life or damage to property. Violence can so easily spiral in such volatile and unpredictable circumstances. It is also politically counter productive, as the SDLP has clearly and forcefully pointed out to Sinn Fein leaders coming into the elections. A ceasefire should be declared immediately.
The escalation of demonstrations outside the Catholic church in Harryville, Ballymena, must also be condemned. It is being driven by the basest sectarianism, in a clear effort to intensify community divisions. Responsible political and police leadership must be exerted immediately to head it off, if necessary by banning tonight's demonstration. This has been made more difficult by the British government's prevarication over Dr Peter North's Review on Parades and Marches, which called for an independent Parades Commission to replace the RUC as the statutory body empowered to make decisions about disputed parades. The establishment of the proposed commission would have been a powerful signal of firm government, irrespective of parliamentary arithmetic at Westminster. It is not too late for Mr Major to put it in place as a token of his commitment to the peace process during the election campaign.