ANALYSIS:The evident bonhomie of Cameron and Clegg will be severely tested by daunting challenges
BATHED IN May sunshine, the Rose Garden of 10 Downing Street was an idyllic location yesterday for the declaration of the political vows of Prime Minister David Cameron and Liberal Democrat leader Nick Clegg.
Few alliances have begun with such hope, with such warmth and with such evident ease. Yet these two leaders must deal with some of the most daunting challenges to face British leaders in decades.
Indeed, the Conservative leader, fresh despite exhausting weeks, seemed not only pleased but actually relieved that Clegg, now deputy prime minister, was by his side, rather than that he should stand there in charge of a Tory minority government.
He had considered trying to form minority government, he said, but quickly abandoned it once it became clear that such an arrangement would be merely about the holding of office, rather than the exercise of the power to change. The coalition, while it brings a myriad of problems, does offer Cameron the opportunity to use Clegg as a buffer when some of his own ranks become troublesome on issues – as they will.
The Liberal Democrat leader will handle political reform, while four of his team will be in cabinet, with others peppered in ministerial offices elsewhere. But he has not won any of the top offices of state: the treasury and the foreign and home offices.
So many of the words will no doubt be eaten in time: that the government will be open and plural; that it will deliver “new politics”; and that it will display “civilised grown-up behaviour”. Such hopes rarely survive proximity to power.
Most daringly, both men solemnly declared that the government will last for every day of the five years promised, even though bookmakers are already offering even-money that it will be gone in a year. Nevertheless, the determination is clearly there to make it work and personal relations, even more than policies, can often be the crucial ingredient in coalitions, as we have seen in Ireland.
However, yesterday’s double act will be greeted with raised eyebrows by the doubtful in both ranks, and fuel the fears that it is already too cosy for comfort.
So far the Conservatives and the Liberal Democrats have agreed compromises on the major issues, though many others have been put aside to be dealt with “in the weeks ahead”. But even the issues agreed will cause problems. Conservative MPs will grumble about being ordered to vote for an Alternative Vote referendum. Liberal Democrats will be unhappy about cuts coming faster than they wanted.
Equally, Clegg’s followers have compromised on immigration. They wanted an amnesty for illegals. Now they have ended up agreeing to an annual cap on non-EU immigration, with an amnesty for illegals forgotten.
The speedy spending cuts were blessed within hours by the governor of the Bank of England, Mervyn King, who said the decision was an important message for those who will be needed to lend money in the years ahead.
Neither Cameron, nor Clegg will need to be reminded that King is also the one who said recently that those in the new government would have to make decisions that would make them unelectable for a generation. In a bid to establish momentum, the new administration announced that a multibillion-pound plan to build a third runway at Heathrow and national ID cards are to be scrapped immediately.
The pact has its share of political sleights of hand. Increases in personal tax allowances, trumpeted as a harbinger of fair taxes, will be paid for by higher employee social insurance contributions. Legislation providing for fixed-term parliaments that will require the support of 55 per cent of MPs before an early election could be called is cornered by the fact that votes of no confidence will still need just a bare majority.
Clegg has decided to bring party delegates together in Birmingham on Sunday to vote on the pact – even though their sanction is not required given that MPs and the party’s governing body signed up in sufficient numbers. For some, the move is seen as evidence of the Liberals’ democratic traditions. Others will see it as Clegg wanting to dip everyone’s hands in the blood, as it were, so that they may be reminded of that in dark days to come.
Clegg, in particular, has taken the gamble of his life. If it goes wrong, Cameron, though he would be damaged, can argue that he tried his best, but that failure is proof of the need for a majority. The Liberal Democrat leader, however, knows that many of his MPs were elected with votes lent by those who would otherwise have backed Labour because they wanted the Conservatives kept out of office.
His move has created space “in the left and centre-left”, as Labour leadership candidate David Miliband put it yesterday, for Labour to regenerate itself now that it is out of power.
Both Cameron and Clegg need disciplined ranks. Within 50 days, the British public will be given sight of the £6 billion worth of cuts to be made in the remainder of this financial year.
In just over a month, Cameron will head to Brussels for his first European Council summit, where the rabid Tory-supporting press and some of his own right-wingers will want to see him flex his muscles.
They may be disappointed. Cameron once demanded the return of powers from Brussels over working hours and criminal justice, along with a “complete opt-out” from the Charter of Fundamental Rights.
Now, the seven-page text of items agreed to date mentions only that they will “work to limit” the application of the EU’s working time directive in the UK, and “approach forthcoming” EU justice laws on a case-by-case basis. There is no mention of the charter.
The compromise is a sensible one, since Cameron has not the time to be embroiled in a useless battle with EU leaders – many of whom are already suspicious of him following his withdrawal of Tory MEPs from the European People’s Party.
But he will be able to, indeed he must, create a “Britain versus the rest” narrative as EU states prepare to negotiate the next round of EU funding – where all have less cash, and even less enthusiasm to spend it on others.
Though some of yesterday’s exchanges had about them the air of naivety, neither man can be regarded as such. Clegg has come from nowhere to occupy the second most powerful position in politics.
Cameron, meanwhile, has danced carefully to reward core loyalists, even though there were fewer positions to go around. Teresa May, regarded as a light-weight by her own most of all, can thank her gender for her rise to home secretary.
Mark Hennessy is London Editor