Why do we find it so difficult to accept any hint of good news coming out of Northern Ireland? Thirty years of violence and some 3,000 deaths don't make for optimism. There have been so many false starts and disappointments that politicians and journalists know it is safer to look on the dark side. That way, you won't appear to be an incorrigibly hopeful ass if, as often happens, things turn out badly.
I'm as cowardly as anyone else about directing you to the sunny side of the street, but the coverage of the current general election campaign does seem to be a case in point. There is an almost general consensus that the anti-agreement forces are dictating the agenda, that David Trimble could lose several of his party's seats, even that the UUP could be heading for electoral "meltdown".
The predictions about what could happen after the vote on June 7th are, if anything, even more bleak. They include the Ulster Unionist leader either resigning as First Minister or being dumped by his own party, the possible suspension of the Assembly, followed by a new review of the agreement, followed by heaven knows what.
Given these negatives, it's not surprising that the opinion poll, published this week in the Belfast Telegraph and the Irish Independent, has been greeted with astonishment, even incredulity.
The poll, conducted by Ulster Marketing Surveys earlier this month, shows a rise in support for the Belfast Agreement among Protestant voters to 61 per cent. This is not only a dramatic increase on the 47 per cent support recorded in a similar poll last October, but is higher than the 51 per cent Protestant Yes vote in the referendum of May 1998. Even when undecided voters are factored in, support for the agreement in the Protestant community stands at 52 per cent.
The first, instinctive reaction to these figures has been to rubbish them. Even supporters of the Belfast deal are gobsmacked. It has been pointed out that opinion polls in Northern Ireland have a notoriously poor record. Many people are reluctant to give pollsters their honest view on political issues, for fear of being seen as extremists. Support for Sinn Fein, for example, has been consistently underestimated.
This may have happened on this occasion, since support for both the SDLP and the UUP is shown as holding steady around 25 per cent. Against this, the strongest rise for any party is for Sinn Fein, whose support has jumped four points to 16 per cent since a similar opinion poll last year.
What the poll shows clearly is the popular enthusiasm for devolution across both communities. Only 8 per cent of Protestants and 1 per cent of Catholics would "strongly agree" with a return to direct rule. Seventy-eight per cent of those polled (including 43 per cent of DUP voters) believe it would be wrong for the Secretary of State to suspend the Assembly.
There are still very strong reservations about aspects of the agreement among unionist voters - the failure to make substantive progress on IRA decommissioning, the role of the police and so on. Many unionists feel, as this newspaper's London Editor, Frank Millar, has eloquently put it, there is "a moral vacuum" at the heart of the accord. They are appalled at what they see as the rise of mafia-style law and order in Northern Ireland, most horribly illustrated by the rise of so-called punishment attacks by paramilitary groups on both sides.
But many of these people also feel that such problems can only be dealt with effectively by local politicians. It is now possible for unionists to be opposed to much that is in the agreement, while approving of the Assembly and the Executive. Devolved government is seen to be working. One has only to look at the efficient and humane way the foot-and-mouth crisis has been handled in Northern Ireland, and compare it with what has happened in the rest of the United Kingdom.
All this should be music to the ears of those who support the agreement and want to see the political structures set up under it develop and grow strong. But, despite my own determination to look on the bright side, past experience does demand a degree of caution. Northern Ireland's voters have a strong tendency to retreat to the tribal trenches in the secrecy of the polling booth.
David Trimble knows that the most dangerous obstacles he has to overcome in this election are the apathy and confusion of his party's traditional supporters. The fact that the UUP's parliamentary candidates are divided on the agreement doesn't help. Nevertheless, the most important message that Mr Trimble has to get across to the 13 per cent of his party's supporters who remain undecided, is that every vote will count in this poll.
The point has already been made, at considerable personal cost one suspects, by Sean Neeson, leader of the Alliance Party. The decision to withdraw from the contest in North Down has greatly enhanced Lady Sylvia Hermon's chances of winning the seat for the UUP. Inevitably, a brave and principled move by the Alliance Party has been greeted with sneering incomprehension. Mr Neeson described it as "putting the agreement before party." It is a great pity that David Trimble did not feel able to make a reciprocal gesture that might have resulted in an Alliance candidate being elected to Westminster.