Mr Bruton's confidence that he was "close to agreement" with Mr Major on decommissioning procedures in the context of all party talks in the North appears to have been premature. Yesterday's meeting in London between the Tanaiste and the Northern Secretary was tough and long, and in the end inconclusive. No agreement has been reached yet on the core question of how to tackle the arms issue - which Mr Major, in his article in this newspaper last week, said would not be allowed to hold up discussion on other questions - or on the related matter of the possible involvement and role of Mr George Mitchell, which could be a crucial factor in the ultimate success of the talks.
This is not the first time that deadlock and deadlines have been intermingled in relations between the two governments as they edge towards consensus on the political process in Northern Ireland. It took President Clinton's imminent arrival last December to produce agreement at the last minute on the twin"track initiative. This time the prefixed date for the beginning of formal negotiations ought to be the stimulus: with less than three weeks to go, there is a powerful incentive to find the right formula.
It has not helped that the election for the Forum has created the worst possible environment to reach what must inevitably be a compromise. Mr David Trimble threatens to pull the rug from under Mr Major's government if he dilutes the terms on offer to Sinn Fein for participating in all party talks. Dr Ian Paisley and Mr Peter Robinson say they are determined to maintain their ideological purity by keeping away from any talks in which Sinn Fein is a participant.
To listen to many of the politicians in advance of the election next week, peace is the last thing on the mind of the electorate and there is little demand for an honourably negotiated political settlement. Mr Gerry Adams, as his article published in The Irish Times today makes clear, has moved from the position he held as recently as last week when he declared that there was "no point in me going to the IRA ... unless I am sure I am going to get a positive result" - to detaching himself from any reference to the IRA of any kind. His party will present itself at the talks on June 10th, he says, relying only on its democratic mandate, and claiming the right to take part.
This is a self defeating position, as Mr Adams knows; one which is simply propagandist. One of Sinn Fein's leading spokesmen, Mr Martin McGuinness, acknowledged at the beginning of last week that the talks have no prospect of success unless the ceasefire is reinstated. That is beyond doubt. They are also unlikely to succeed if there is no relaxation by both sides on decommissioning in the spirit of the Mitchell principles, pointing to a middle way, which all have nominally endorsed.
The unionist demand for an immediate delivery of arms is as unrealistic as Sinn Fein's expectation that arms should not be decommissioned until the end of talks. At the centre of both positions lies the question of trust which, it is obvious, must be the first purpose of talks to create. Without the leadership of the two governments, even that becomes unlikely.