French foreign minister Bernard Kouchner has caused a flurry of speculation with his blunt comment in a weekend interview about Iran's nuclear programme that "we have to prepare for the worst.
The worst, sir, is war." It is not clear whether he was being characteristically brusque and outspoken or was rather voicing a central French government concern. Either way, his remarks should be taken seriously as a warning that tension over Iran is rapidly increasing - and that French foreign policy is undergoing a radical change under President Sarkozy.
Yesterday, French prime minister Francois Fillon said that everything must be done to avoid the prospect of war with Iran. "France's role is to lead towards a peaceful solution of a situation that would be extremely dangerous for the rest of the world," he added. He wants to see tougher international sanctions taken to persuade Iran's leaders that they must suspend nuclear enrichment. His statement clarified but did not contradict Mr Kouchner's. Given that Mr Sarkozy said last month in his first major foreign policy speech that a diplomatic push for tougher sanctions was the only viable alternative to "an Iranian bomb or the bombing of Iran", this is not surprising.
Mr Sarkozy is determined to reorient French policy towards Iraq, Iran and Israel, bringing it closer to the United States, albeit still within a common European Union framework. He believes Iran poses a profound challenge to transatlantic interests in the Middle East. He is in close contact with the Bush administration on the issue, aligning himself with the group around secretary of state Condoleezza Rice, which wants to see sufficiently strong sanctions applied against Tehran to ensure that it changes course from its present refusal to stop nuclear enrichment. This is in pursuit of peaceful nuclear power, Iran insists, rather than of nuclear weapons.
But Iran has failed to convince the European contact group that it is seriously engaging on the issue. They must now choose whether to go along with tougher sanctions to justify their own involvement. Such a conflict of wills can escalate towards a potential military confrontation in an irrational momentum this autumn unless serious attempts are made to re-emphasise the diplomatic path towards an agreement with Iran. But if that is to happen Iran must reciprocate by co-operating politically, rather than ratcheting up tension in response to every provocation. It is essential that these negotiations be kept within United Nations parameters when it comes to considering and applying sanctions and conducting negotiations. This should be the main focus of European Union policy in the coming months.