Irish voters have defeated the Treaty of Nice referendum by a margin of 54 to 46 in a very low poll of 34.79 per cent. This is a decisive result, which must be accepted and respected by the Government and the campaign protagonists. It is also a regrettable one, both in substance and in terms of democratic procedure.
Tribute is due to the No camp for its sheer effectiveness compared to the flaccid and complacent campaign run by the Government, its allies among the major political parties and leaders of the major interest groups. But all concerned must reflect long and hard on this poor showing of the Irish democratic spirit, in which so few of the electorate came out to vote on such a profoundly important issue.
The Treaty of Nice has several shortcomings, but on balance it is the best way to prepare the European Union for an historic continental enlargement. Ireland's image as a friend of that process was badly damaged yesterday, especially in the 12 candidate states which have up to now regarded this State as a particular ally, having many points of similarity with them historically and as a model for their own development.
The Government will have a very difficult job convincing all its partners at next weekend's summit in Gothenberg that this result is not a vote against enlargement. That is its effect, whatever about the voters' intentions (and the findings of an Irish Times/ MRBI poll that they accept enlargement by a margin of 59 to 25 per cent). This result will also affect the balance of Ireland's interests and political capital in the EU, as good will by its partners changes in response to another perception - that Ireland has turned its back on European integration after benefiting from substantial transfers over three decades, now that it has caught up with the richest states.
This would be a false conclusion from the result. But the treaty's opponents and the Government must live with its real effects, of which many voters were clearly unaware. Most people who abstained did not understand the issues involved in the treaty, raising profound questions about the conduct of the campaign and the role of the Referendum Commission during it. More time was needed to raise awareness of what is involved, using much more accessible techniques for political debate.
While the No side reaped the advantage of superior organisation and energy, it was too often on the basis of dishonest and unscrupulous misrepresentation of what is involved in the Treaty of Nice. In some cases, opponents exploited base xenophobic fears. The Yes campaign failed to counter these, or to convey a vision of the historic issues involved in a continental enlargement of the EU. There was an inexcusable assumption that traditional supporters of integration would deliver a Yes vote on the day - and a failure to realise that sceptical ministerial comments on the EU over the last year had rebounded on the Government's position.
This is a crisis for the EU just as much as for the Government. Ireland's voters have sent an important message about democratic accountability and accessibility to all those involved in redesigning the Union's institutions. Visionaries are badly needed to inspire its peoples. The urgent task now is to find effective means to address the real concerns shown up by the result of this referendum.