Six days after the First Minister of Northern Ireland, Mr David Trimble, decided to place a ban on Sinn Fein Ministers attending meetings of the North/ South Ministerial Council, the signs are that the two governments are striving purposefully, to work their way out of the latest crisis to engulf the peace process. Mr Ahern and Mr Blair, and Mr Mandelson and Mr Cowen at their meeting in London yesterday, have reached a "common analysis and understanding" of the current problem. They resume the painstaking task of trying to create the conditions in which Mr Trimble's sanctions can credibly be lifted as quickly as possible.
The joint strategy being pursued by the two governments - and most of the pro-agreement parties in the last couple of days - is moderation in the face of a clear breach in the spirit, if not the letter, of the Belfast Agreement. There is some appreciation, even in Dublin, that Mr Trimble adopted minimal sanctions at the Ulster Unionist Council's meeting in Belfast last Saturday to see off the threat to his leadership. He has the technical power to sign, or not to sign, the consent forms for Ministers to attend meetings of the North/South Ministerial Council.
Recognising Mr Trimble's political difficulties is one thing, however, and protecting the agreement and all of its architecture is another. It is important, in this context, that the Government has decided to make the political point today that the North/South Ministerial Council is a fundamental part of the Belfast Agreement, the first agreed relationship between North and South since partition. The Minister for Health, Mr Martin, will travel to Enniskillen to meet his Northern counterpart, Ms de Brun, albeit in bilateral rather than institutional mode.
While this symbolic action may suffice for the day, there can be no down-playing the difficulties now besetting the agreement. A series of intensive negotiations will take place in coming days in an effort to find a way out of the current impasse. The Government is hoping that the implementation of the Patten Report and other measures may set the conditions for further engagement between the IRA and the Independent International Commission on Decommissioning (IICD). Republicans claimed that the slow pace of progress on these issues was partly responsible for their failure to meet the IICD in September.
In this respect, the judgment by the two international inspectors, Mr Ahtisaari and Mr Ramaphosa, yesterday that "we have formed the distinct impression that the IRA are serious about the peace process" and that the material in the substantial arms dumps is not obsolete, can only be helpful to the efforts to restore the workings of all parts of the agreement. The Northern Secretary, Mr Mandelson, suggested in an article in the London Times yesterday that two things must happen to get round the latest impasse: the ban on Sinn Fein Ministers attending North/South meetings must be lifted and the IRA must re-engage with the decommissioning body. The task which the two governments have embarked on now is to make progress on issues of republican concern so that the date for the next IRA engagement with the IICD can be brought forward.