The precarious nature of politics is highlighted, once again, by the widespread changes in constituency boundaries proposed by the Constituency Commission in its report published yesterday.
The growth in population recorded in the 2002 Census and the new commuter culture in counties within driving distance of Dublin, revealed imbalances in the Dáil representation of the existing 42 constituencies. This changing demographic landscape has produced a greater than usual redrawing of constituencies which will cause headaches to many sitting and aspiring TDs in the next general election.
The independent Commission, chaired by Mr Justice Vivian Lavan of the High Court, has done its usual professional job in juggling with the constituencies to make them represent the latest population changes in the fairest way possible. The census had shown that unacceptable anomalies had crept into the numbers of TDs in a sizeable number of constituencies. But, the results will excite strategists in all parties in the run-up to this year's European and local elections.
The changes proposed by the Commission obviously affect some constituencies much more than others, but only a small number are left totally unchanged. The Commission concentrated on those where there was a higher than 5 per cent variance from the national average population per TD. This was the case in half the 42 constituencies.
The number of TDs will remain at 166 but the number of constituencies will increase from 42 to 43. The extra constituency is allocated to Meath, by dividing it into two three-seaters, embracing a part of Co Westmeath, instead of a single five-seater. There is an increase of one seat in Dáil representation in Kildare North and Dublin Mid-West. There is also a reduction of one seat in representation for Cork North Central and Dublin North Central and for counties Sligo, Leitrim, Roscommon and Longford combined.
The Commission recommends changes to 10 Dublin constituencies. The Dublin region keeps its 47-seat spread over 12 constituencies but with a somewhat different shape. The main changes affect the growing commuter belt to the west and the over-represented northside areas. Dublin Mid-West gets an extra seat by taking a sizeable chunk of population from Dublin West which was seriously under represented. Dublin North Central loses a seat. There are changed boundaries also in 11 other constituencies around the State.
The net result of the recommendations, which will pass into law before the next general election, is a drop in the number of five-seaters from 14 to 12; coupled with increases in the number of four-seaters and three-seaters. Some political personalities will be affected by these changes. The growth of smaller parties could be curtailed by smaller constituencies, but the important thing is that there is no longer any scope for political party manipulation. Changing demographics map the Dáil.