A political and security disaster is in the making between Israel and the Palestinians as the rest of the world struggles ineffectively to influence the course of their conflict.
The Israeli prime minister, Mr Sharon, spoke yesterday of giving the Palestinian leader, Mr Arafat, a one-way ticket out of his headquarters in Ramallah, where he has been detained for months. The objective of the current massive Israeli operation is unclear as between removing the Palestinian leader from power and capturing those responsible for the Passover suicide bombing atrocity in which 21 people died last week. How can Mr Arafat control such violence when he is so confined by Israeli forces?
This conflict urgently requires international involvement to scale it back and encourage the parties to renew political dialogue. Otherwise it could spill over into a much more serious regional confrontation with consequences for world politics and the world economy. Unfortunately, the United States, which has the most capacity to influence events, has chosen effectively to blame the Palestinian leadership for the violence and to accept Mr Sharon's diagnosis of the problem as one of terrorism alone. President Bush resists pressure for deeper involvement until the present Israeli military operation against Palestinian targets has run its course.
This is a short-sighted and wrong-headed approach, which reflects an uncritical attitude towards Israeli policies rather than US interests and values in the region. It is coming under increasing criticism within the US from those who say it restricts the capacity to influence Arab states on Iraq and the war against terrorism. This case is now being made much more powerfully in Europe, where there is widespread support for the withdrawal of Israeli troops from Palestinian towns and cities and an end to the humiliating treatment of Mr Arafat - seen as the only possible interlocutor for a renewed peace process with Israel. A special meeting of EU foreign ministers is being called to decide how to pursue this approach, as a gulf opens up with the US on policy towards the Middle East. As always, the lack of European diplomatic and political capacity to affect events there looms large; it now seems set to influence a strengthened EU foreign policy capacity in such a vitally important area.
The basic elements for progress towards renewed negotiations have been clearly spelled out in recent United Nations resolutions and in the policy adopted by the Arab League summit last week in Beirut. They provide for Israeli withdrawal from occupied territory, an end to acts of terrorism against Israelis and renewed security and political negotiations.
It is, of course, easier to catalogue these objectives than to ensure progress towards achieving them. But Israeli warnings yesterday that the conflict could spread to Lebanon and Syria, following reports that Hizbullah forces have been mobilising for further attacks across the border, together with nervous movements in oil prices following suggestions that Iraq and Iran should withhold oil exports, illustrate how seriously the crisis could escalate.